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arXiv · 2608.25979

The Symmetric Pair Matching Design: A Self-Controlled Method with Automatic Adjustment for Time Effects

Robin Denz·Filippo Saatkamp·Katharina Meiszl·Nina Timmesfeld
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Abstract

Self-controlled study designs eliminate confounding by individual-level characteristics that remain constant during the observation time and are thus widely used in pharmacoepidemiology and vaccine safety research. However, existing methods remain vulnerable to time effects, including temporal trends and seasonality in the exposure or outcome, unless these are explicitly modeled or controlled through the study design. We introduce the symmetric pair matching design (SPM), a novel self-controlled method that combines design-based adjustment for time effects with automatic control of time-invariant confounding. Unlike previous design-based approaches that account for time effects, SPM uses observation time both before and after event occurrence, thereby retaining a larger proportion of the available information. We derive the theoretical properties of the method and evaluate its finite-sample performance through simulations. In the simulations, SPM produced unbiased estimates in the presence of temporal trends in both the outcome and exposure, while maintaining greater or comparable statistical efficiency than existing approaches. SPM extends the family of self-controlled methods by providing design-based control of time effects without requiring explicit modeling thereof. By combining robustness to temporal confounding with efficient use of observation time, SPM offers a practical alternative for observational studies with transient exposures. An accompanying R package is provided to facilitate its usage in applied research.

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Robin Denz, Filippo Saatkamp, Katharina Meiszl, Nina Timmesfeld. 2026-08-26. The Symmetric Pair Matching Design: A Self-Controlled Method with Automatic Adjustment for Time Effects. https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.25979

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