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arXiv · 2608.27289

Combining covariate adjustment with information from secondary endpoints to improve precision in randomized trials

Jack M. Wolf·Joseph S. Koopmeiners·David M. Vock
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Abstract

Background/Aims: Adjustment for prognostic baseline covariates can improve precision in randomized trials. Previous work has shown that jointly modeling primary and secondary endpoints can yield additional precision by borrowing information across endpoints. We investigated whether these approaches can be combined to achieve efficiency gains beyond those obtained through covariate adjustment alone. Methods: We extended a previously proposed one-factor structural equation modeling framework for borrowing information from secondary endpoints to incorporate baseline covariates while retaining the average treatment effect on the primary endpoint as the estimand. To mitigate sensitivity to model misspecification, we combined this estimator with a conventional covariate-adjusted estimator using cross-validated model averaging. We evaluated operating characteristics in simulations and applied the methods to a randomized trial of very low versus normal nicotine content cigarettes. Results: When the structural equation model was correctly specified, endpoint borrowing improved efficiency beyond conventional covariate adjustment across all simulated settings. Model misspecification could induce bias and undercoverage. Model averaging reduced bias and improved coverage relative to the structural equation model estimator, although coverage remained imperfect under severe misspecification. In the trial application, the model-averaged estimate was 21% more precise than the unadjusted estimate and 13% more precise than covariate adjustment alone. Conclusion: Secondary endpoints can contribute meaningful information about the average treatment effect on a primary endpoint even after baseline covariates have been incorporated. These gains require stronger assumptions than conventional covariate adjustment; model averaging provides a practical compromise between efficiency and robustness.

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Jack M. Wolf, Joseph S. Koopmeiners, David M. Vock. 2026-08-27. Combining covariate adjustment with information from secondary endpoints to improve precision in randomized trials. https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.27289

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