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arXiv · 2608.29334

On the Effect of Large Scale Structures and Turbulence on Solar Eruptive Events: The Cross-Scale Challenge for Space Weather

Alessandro Ippolito·Giuseppe Prete·Nicolas Wijsen·Gaetano Zimbardo·Anwesha Maharana·Stefaan Poedts·Sergio Servidio
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Abstract

Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) are among the most powerful drivers of space weather, yet their prediction remains elusive. A fundamental obstacle is the problem's multiscale nature: large-scale magnetohydrodynamic models do not resolve the turbulent fluctuations that govern particle transport and magnetic connectivity. We present a new model that combines a MICroscopic diffusion approach of turbulence with MACroscopic EUHFORIA simulations (MICMAC) to address the cross-scale challenge of space weather. By incorporating turbulence properties into such small-scale Monte Carlo simulations, we describe an extreme CME event, tracing both magnetic field lines and 100 MeV protons from the CME-driven shock to 1 AU. We find that turbulence dramatically broadens and distorts the magnetic connection between the CME nose and Earth, producing footpoint distributions that are highly non-Gaussian, anisotropic, and patchy. MICMAC suggests that the distribution's enstrophy (non-Gaussianity) grows as the CME approaches Earth, signaling anomalous diffusive behavior. A simple shear-layer toy model reproduces the observed in-plane anisotropy, suggesting that local current sheet geometry imprints a persistent memory on the turbulent field. Our results demonstrate that cross-scale coupling between the CME's large-scale structure and ambient turbulence must be accounted for in space weather models. We discuss implications for SEP forecasting and interpreting multi-spacecraft observations.

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Alessandro Ippolito, Giuseppe Prete, Nicolas Wijsen, Gaetano Zimbardo, Anwesha Maharana, Stefaan Poedts, Sergio Servidio. 2026-08-29. On the Effect of Large Scale Structures and Turbulence on Solar Eruptive Events: The Cross-Scale Challenge for Space Weather. https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.29334

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