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arXiv · 2609.04563

When a high-mountain slope failure cascades downstream: physical footprint and evolving exposure of the 2026 Gyirong mixed rock-ice cascade

Rui Li
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Abstract

The 26 August 2026 Gyirong cascade connected a high-mountain failure to developed downstream valleys. Event-bracketing observations delineate a preferred changed/source surface of 1.01 km^2, within alternative interpreted envelopes of 0.49-1.84 km^2, and a representative 21.8 km source-to-port route descending 3.40 km. Across two precipitation products, five antecedent windows and six fixed spatial supports, all 60 matched-year ranks remain below the 90th-percentile wet threshold. The source-nearest 7-day temperature mean of 9.43 degrees C exceeds all 25 matched years from 2001-2025. Positive temperature anomalies extend to every tested support, but ranks vary from the 88th percentile to above all historical values. Within the subsequently affected 37.354 km^2 UNOSAT footprint, modelled built-up surface increases from 0.036 to 0.441 km^2 between 1975 and 2020; its fraction of the fixed area rises from 0.096% to 1.181%. Delivered rapid maps contain 695 building points and 15.671 km of roads graded destroyed. These measurements connect the physical footprint with environmental context and historical exposure development. They complement existing process reconstruction while leaving the initiation mechanism and the mechanical role of warming unresolved.

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Rui Li. 2026-09-03. When a high-mountain slope failure cascades downstream: physical footprint and evolving exposure of the 2026 Gyirong mixed rock-ice cascade. https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.04563

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