Stacking HI in the dark: Towards detecting the reionization-epoch 21 cm signal in Lyman-$\alpha$ dark gaps

Abstract

The detection of the redshifted 21 cm signal from neutral hydrogen during the epoch of reionization remains one of the central challenges in contemporary cosmology. Although upcoming radio interferometers are expected to measure 21 cm fluctuations at a few percent precision, an independent confirmation is essential to ensure robustness against instrumental systematics and foreground contamination. In this work, we propose a novel real-space stacking technique to detect the 21 cm signal, guided by the presence of dark gaps in quasar absorption spectra during the late stages of reionization ($z \sim 5.0$-$6.1$). Using a semi-numerical reionization model, we show that stacking 21 cm images on long dark gaps (length, $L > 32~h^{-1}\mathrm{cMpc}$ and threshold flux, $F_{\mathrm{th}} < 0.005$) should reveal a strong emission signal with a peak mean-subtracted 21 cm brightness temperature of $\delta \tilde{T}_b \sim 2-3~ mK$ for a volume-weighted average neutral fraction of $x_{\mathrm{HI}} \sim 0.1$ at $z = 5.9$. We further extend our analysis to realistic reionization lightcones, incorporating thermal noise and foreground avoidance effects, generated for two different reionization histories. In an optimistic foreground avoidance scenario (wedge field of view $\theta < 20^\circ$), a sample of roughly 100 dark gaps is sufficient to achieve a combined root-sum-square signal-to-noise ratio exceeding 10 for both reionization models, while a more conservative wedge avoidance may require more dark gaps for a solid detection. Given the large number of quasars known at $z > 6$, a detection of this stacked signal may thus already be within reach of existing optical (i.e., VLT, Keck) and 21 cm observatories (i.e., HERA, SKA). This synergistic approach offers a promising pathway towards a direct and statistically robust detection of the cosmological 21 cm signal.