SearcharxivSearch

arXiv · 2609.06347

Distinguishing lensing and precessional modulation in binary black-hole inspiral waveforms

Abstract

Binary black holes (BBHs) emit gravitational waves (GWs) as they inspiral towards merger. These GWs can be gravitationally lensed by large-scale structure along the line of sight, potentially creating multiple images of the same source with fixed time delays determined by the lensing geometry. As the BBHs inspiral, the GW frequency increases, leading to successive constructive and destructive interference between the multiple images. BBHs also have spins $\mathbf{S}_i$ that may be misaligned with their orbital angular momentum $\mathbf{L}$. As the BBHs inspiral, these misaligned spins cause $\mathbf{L}$ to precess about the total angular momentum $\mathbf{J}$, modulating the GW emission similar to pulsar emission resulting from a misaligned jet rotating in and out of the line of sight. We investigate the ability of a single L-shaped GW detector to distinguish between these two sources of modulation. We find that precessional modulation can mimic the lensing modulation between two images with comparable magnifications when the time delay between the images is short enough that fewer than three interference fringes occur during the time the GW signal spends in the sensitivity band of the detector. As strong lensing is rare for GW sources at moderate redshift while misaligned spins are common for BBHs produced in certain formation channels, ruling out precessional modulation is essential to identifying genuinely lensed systems.

Explore related subjects

Keep this discovery

BibTeXRIS

Tien N. Nguyen-Vo, Tamanjyot Singh, Benjamin McKallip, Michael Kesden, Lindsay King. 2026-09-06. Distinguishing lensing and precessional modulation in binary black-hole inspiral waveforms. https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.06347

Cite the original work for its findings. Save a collection to share your selection of sources.

KEEP EXPLORING

Related papers

Electrovacuum Black Hole Uniqueness

We prove the black hole uniqueness conjecture in the axially symmetric, stationary, electrovacuum setting, subject to the refined asymptotic analysis of the associated singular harmonic maps, which includes an analyticity hypothesis at the axes. More precisely, it is shown that any asymptotically flat solution of the Einstein--Maxwell equations in this class, with more than one black hole horizon component is either: Majumdar--Papapetrou, up to a duality rotation, in which case all logarithmic angle defects vanish, or every finite axis rod logarithmic angle defect is strictly negative and hence every interaction force is strictly attractive. The proof extends the singular harmonic map method used for vacuum Kerr uniqueness in [18].

gr-qc

Constraining Modified Mass-to-Horizon Cosmology Through Primordial Inflationary Observables

We investigate slow-roll inflation in a modified cosmological framework inspired by a generalized mass-to-horizon relation (MHR), $M=\gamma {c^2 L^n}/{G}$, where $n$ is a real parameter and $\gamma$ a dimensional constant. Using Padmanabhan's emergence paradigm, we derive the modified Friedmann equations for a flat FRW universe and analyze the dynamics of a canonical scalar field (inflaton) under the slow-roll approximation. We study the resulting inflationary phenomenology for power-law and Starobinsky potentials. For power-law potentials, the MHR modification fails to reconcile these models with current CMB constraints on $r$ and $n_s$. In contrast, Starobinsky inflation exhibits significant sensitivity to deviations from $n=1$. A perturbative analysis ($n=1+\Delta$) yields corrections to inflationary observables. We observe that the scalar power-spectrum normalization, under a fixed-Starobinsky prescription, imposes the stringent constraint $0.960 \lesssim n \lesssim 1.040$ for $N=60$ efolds. This is considerably tighter than spectral-index bounds. Our results establish inflation, particularly Starobinsky-like models, as a sensitive probe of generalized horizon thermodynamics and departures from standard MHR scaling.

gr-qc

Improving the Sensitivity of Gravitational Wave Detection with Weighted Conformal Prediction

In the last decade, kilometre-scale interferometric gravitational-wave detectors have observed hundreds of compact binary mergers, the majority of which are binary black holes. However, the data are noise-dominated, and multiple independent search algorithms (pipelines) are used to enhance sensitivity and improve robustness. Rather than the standard approach of selecting the most significant pipeline output, we combine the outputs from all pipelines using a conformal prediction-based framework to provide statistically rigorous confidence estimates for candidate events. While combining pipelines improves sensitivity and ranking robustness, it requires a principled statistical framework that remains valid as data properties evolve across observing runs. A key challenge is distribution shifts between simulated datasets used for training and calibration and the real, unlabelled, observations used for testing, which can invalidate coverage guarantees and bias confidence estimates. In this work, we address this challenge by incorporating likelihood-ratio reweighting into our conformal prediction framework to account for covariate shift. Using mock datasets containing simulated signals, we demonstrate that weighted conformal prediction restores well-calibrated coverage under covariate shift and increases the confidence of events near the detection threshold, recovering true signals that would otherwise be missed.

gr-qc