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arXiv · 2609.07619

Data-driven estimation of design heating loads for HVAC equipment sizing

Alex H. Lee·Elias N. Pergantis·Kevin J. Kircher
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Abstract

Oversized heating and cooling equipment can unnecessarily increase up-front costs, energy costs, pollutant emissions, and strain on electrical infrastructure. This paper develops two data-driven methods for estimating heating loads at design conditions to improve equipment sizing. One method uses smart thermostat data; the other uses utility bills. We test the methods on a dataset that we gathered from 74 detached single-family houses in five United States climate zones. The dataset includes smart thermostat time-series data, monthly utility bills, weather data, existing equipment specifications, and Manual J design load calculations (the United States industry standard) purchased from practitioners. The two methods have strong goodness-of-fit statistics individually and show fair agreement with each other. On average over the 74 houses, existing heating equipment is 2.75 (2.5th to 97.5th empirical percentile: 1.34-6.52) times larger than the thermostat-method estimate and 2.96 (1.36-7.76 times larger than the bill-method estimate. As implemented by practitioners, the Manual J estimate is 2.26 (0.87-5.21) times larger on average than the thermostat-method estimate and 2.35 (1.02-5.28) times larger than the bill-method estimate. We discuss prospects for implementing the data-driven methods at scale and for incorporating data-driven sizing into industry standards.

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Alex H. Lee, Elias N. Pergantis, Kevin J. Kircher. 2026-09-07. Data-driven estimation of design heating loads for HVAC equipment sizing. https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.07619

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