SearcharxivSearch

arXiv · 2609.09926

Prospects of electromagnetic follow-up of neutron star-black hole mergers in the LIGO-India era

Abstract

Neutron star-black hole (NSBH) mergers are promising multimessenger sources, but only a subset is expected to produce detectable electromagnetic (EM) counterparts, depending on the binary mass ratio, black hole (BH) spin, and neutron star (NS) equation of state (EoS). We investigate the prospects for detecting kilonova counterparts to NSBH mergers in the LIGO-India era using the Vera C. Rubin Observatory (Rubin). We simulate GW230529-motivated NSBH populations with two effective tidal deformability ranges, estimate gravitational-wave detections for the LHV (LIGO-Livingston, LIGO-Hanford, Virgo) and LHVA (LHV with LIGO-India at Aundha) detector networks, and model the detectability of the associated kilonova emission with Rubin. We find that adding LIGO-India approximately doubles the number of EM follow-ups, primarily by increasing the duty cycle and reducing the median sky-localization area, and notably increases the number of such detections at large distances. For fixed-exposure strategies, the EM detection rate saturates at exposure times of a few hundred seconds, reflecting the trade-off between depth and sky coverage. We therefore introduce an event-specific exposure-time optimization strategy based on the expected counterpart brightness and sky-localization area. With this strategy, the expected NSBH GW+EM detection rate per year is 4.19(-3.58,+9.66) for the optimistic and 0.79(-0.68,+1.83) for the conservative population with the LHVA network, compared to 1.46(-1.25,+3.37) and 0.27(-0.23,+0.62), respectively, for LHV. The required Rubin follow-up time remains within the expected Target-of-Opportunity allocation. These results show that in the next decade, a few such NSBH follow-ups may take place, with a fraction of them in the redshift range of about 0.1-0.2, which will not only be useful for measuring the Hubble constant but can also help us in probing the Hubble parameter.

Explore related subjects

Keep this discovery

Explore connections, maps & timelines

BibTeXRIS

Yogita Kumari, Kanchan Soni, Sanjit Mitra. 2026-09-09. Prospects of electromagnetic follow-up of neutron star-black hole mergers in the LIGO-India era. https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.09926

Cite the original work for its findings. Save a collection to share your selection of sources.

KEEP EXPLORING

Related papers

Electrovacuum Black Hole Uniqueness

We prove the black hole uniqueness conjecture in the axially symmetric, stationary, electrovacuum setting, subject to the refined asymptotic analysis of the associated singular harmonic maps, which includes an analyticity hypothesis at the axes. More precisely, it is shown that any asymptotically flat solution of the Einstein--Maxwell equations in this class, with more than one black hole horizon component is either: Majumdar--Papapetrou, up to a duality rotation, in which case all logarithmic angle defects vanish, or every finite axis rod logarithmic angle defect is strictly negative and hence every interaction force is strictly attractive. The proof extends the singular harmonic map method used for vacuum Kerr uniqueness in [18].

gr-qc

Constraining Modified Mass-to-Horizon Cosmology Through Primordial Inflationary Observables

We investigate slow-roll inflation in a modified cosmological framework inspired by a generalized mass-to-horizon relation (MHR), $M=\gamma {c^2 L^n}/{G}$, where $n$ is a real parameter and $\gamma$ a dimensional constant. Using Padmanabhan's emergence paradigm, we derive the modified Friedmann equations for a flat FRW universe and analyze the dynamics of a canonical scalar field (inflaton) under the slow-roll approximation. We study the resulting inflationary phenomenology for power-law and Starobinsky potentials. For power-law potentials, the MHR modification fails to reconcile these models with current CMB constraints on $r$ and $n_s$. In contrast, Starobinsky inflation exhibits significant sensitivity to deviations from $n=1$. A perturbative analysis ($n=1+\Delta$) yields corrections to inflationary observables. We observe that the scalar power-spectrum normalization, under a fixed-Starobinsky prescription, imposes the stringent constraint $0.960 \lesssim n \lesssim 1.040$ for $N=60$ efolds. This is considerably tighter than spectral-index bounds. Our results establish inflation, particularly Starobinsky-like models, as a sensitive probe of generalized horizon thermodynamics and departures from standard MHR scaling.

gr-qc

Improving the Sensitivity of Gravitational Wave Detection with Weighted Conformal Prediction

In the last decade, kilometre-scale interferometric gravitational-wave detectors have observed hundreds of compact binary mergers, the majority of which are binary black holes. However, the data are noise-dominated, and multiple independent search algorithms (pipelines) are used to enhance sensitivity and improve robustness. Rather than the standard approach of selecting the most significant pipeline output, we combine the outputs from all pipelines using a conformal prediction-based framework to provide statistically rigorous confidence estimates for candidate events. While combining pipelines improves sensitivity and ranking robustness, it requires a principled statistical framework that remains valid as data properties evolve across observing runs. A key challenge is distribution shifts between simulated datasets used for training and calibration and the real, unlabelled, observations used for testing, which can invalidate coverage guarantees and bias confidence estimates. In this work, we address this challenge by incorporating likelihood-ratio reweighting into our conformal prediction framework to account for covariate shift. Using mock datasets containing simulated signals, we demonstrate that weighted conformal prediction restores well-calibrated coverage under covariate shift and increases the confidence of events near the detection threshold, recovering true signals that would otherwise be missed.

gr-qc