Searcharxiv⌕ Search
Home/Archive/arXiv

arXiv · 2609.17232

A system-centered probabilistic formalism linking multiple equilibria and biodiversity in ecological and evolutionary models

Hiba Nassor·Hermine Biermé·Elisabeth Herniou·Sten Madec
View original source ↗Read source document ↗Export metadata ↓

Abstract

Ecological and evolutionary communities do not always settle into a single predictable configuration. Models such as Lotka-Volterra or replicator dynamics may predict several admissible states. The multiplicity of such states is central to understanding robustness, alternative community configurations, coexistence, and shifts in biodiversity. Yet, standard practices are often state-centered: they either focus on the properties of typical equilibria or pool states across systems, losing information about how many states can arise in a single system, including cases where no state exists. Here, we introduce a system-centered probabilistic formalism that captures this hidden structure and could be applied across a wide range of ecological and evolutionary dynamical models, drawing inspiration from hurdle and zero-inflated models. Each ecological system is viewed as generating a distribution over its possible outcomes. This allows us to jointly quantify the occurrence of a given state type, its multiplicity within each system, and the number of species co-existing within these states. The formalism is generic and can be applied to different families of dynamical models. To illustrate its scope, we consider two case studies: the generalized Lotka-Volterra and replicator dynamics with random and structured parameters. This unified perspective reveals patterns that remain invisible when equilibria are analyzed individually or pooled across systems. By turning the state space of a model into interpretable probabilistic quantities, our formalism offers a new way for studying the robustness of community structure, the likelihood of alternative outcomes under small changes in initial conditions, and the potential for shifts between states of low and high diversity.

Explore related subjects

math.DSmath.PR

Keep this discovery

Explore connections, maps & timelines

BibTeXRIS

Hiba Nassor, Hermine Biermé, Elisabeth Herniou, Sten Madec. 2026-09-15. A system-centered probabilistic formalism linking multiple equilibria and biodiversity in ecological and evolutionary models. https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.17232

Cite the original work for its findings. Save a collection to share your selection of sources.

KEEP EXPLORING

Related papers

arXiv2026

Equidistribution of saddle periodic points for Hénon-like maps

We prove that under a natural assumption on the dynamical degrees, the saddle periodic points of a Hénon-like map in any dimension equidistribute with respect to the equilibrium measure. Our work is a generalization of the results of Bedford-Lyubich-Smillie, Dujardin, and Dinh-Sibony along with improvements of their techniques. We also investigate some fine properties of Green currents associated with the map.

math.DS↗
arXiv2026

On dissonance and orthogonal projections of self-conformal measures

Let $μ$ be a self-conformal measure on $\mathbb{R}^d$. We establish conditions for $μ$ under which $\dim(μ*ν) = \min\lbrace d,\dimμ+\dimν\rbrace$ holds when $ν$ is any Ahlfors-regular or self-conformal measure on $\mathbb{R}^d$. Our main result states the following sufficient condition: $μ$ is totally non-linear and not supported on a smooth hypersurface. We also establish sufficient (likely non-sharp) algebraic conditions for self-conformal measures which are not totally non-linear. In addition, we show that $\dim μ\circπ^{-1} = \min\{ k, \dim μ\}$ for every ortohogonal projection $π:\mathbb{R}^d\to\mathbb{R}^k$, $0<k<d$, when either $d=2$ and $μ$ is not self-similar and not supported on a line, or $d\geq 3$ and $μ$ is totally non-linear and not supported on a smooth hypersurface.

math.DS↗
arXiv2026

Equation-Free Screening of Mittag-Leffler-Compatible Dynamics from Scalar Time Series via kNN Multi-Horizon Profiles

Fractional models provide a natural description of systems with memory, but a noninteger derivative should not be introduced solely because a time series is curved or slowly relaxing. We develop an equation-free preliminary screening framework that asks whether a scalar time series produces a multi-horizon k-nearest-neighbor (kNN) profile more compatible with Mittag-Leffler-type behavior than with selected conventional alternatives. In an ideal matched Caputo-relaxation benchmark, the complete generation-kNN-profile-model-comparison pipeline reproduces the expected Mittag-Leffler geometry and recovers the generating order to within approximately $10^{-3}$; this is interpreted as controlled calibration rather than as general fractional-order identification. Under 3% trajectory-specific observational noise, the held-out Mittag-Leffler preference is most consistent when the generating dynamics are well separated from the integer-order limit and becomes progressively less decisive as $α\rightarrow1$. The fitted order $α_{\mathrm{fit}}$, however, shows substantially larger realization-to-realization variability. Thus, relative model compatibility is more robust than single-realization order estimation in the present noisy benchmark. Noise-free nonfractional controls show a separate limitation of specificity: a stretched exponential can generate a strongly Mittag-Leffler-compatible profile, whereas inclusion of the generating rational/Hill family recovers that family and its parameters to numerical precision in the matched setting. A positive Mittag-Leffler-versus-exponential screen therefore does not uniquely establish fractional origin. A fractional chaotic system is treated only as an exploratory extension: the Mittag-Leffler growth family gives lower finite-window RMSE than exponential and logistic/saturating alternatives over the detected pre-transition interval.

math.DS↗