Image-Derived PM10 Estimation in Cattle Feedlot Using Machine Learning: Addressing Concentration Ranges Beyond Existing Digital Imaging Methods

Abstract

Affordable dust monitoring remains a pressing need for the cattle feedlot industry, yet camera-based PM estimation, despite its growing body of research in urban air quality settings, has not been evaluated under the extended concentration ranges characteristic of intensive livestock operations. This study developed an image-based approach using contrast panel features and machine learning to estimate PM10 concentrations in a commercial cattle feedlot, where hourly average PM10 ranged from 250 to 1,000 ug/m^-3 and instantaneous concentrations reached 5,000 to 20,000 ug/m^-3. Grayscale images were captured during the evening dust peak period, and features including panel contrast, black and white panel pixel values, and overall image brightness were extracted. The model also incorporated recent past values from preceding images and solar zenith angle as predictors. Among the candidate models evaluated, XGBoost achieved the highest predictive performance, with an R^2 of 0.792 and a median absolute error of 103 ug/m^-3. Feature importance analysis revealed that (a) panels positioned farthest from the camera contributed most strongly to predictions and (b) that black panel pixel values were more sensitive than white panel values to changes in PM10 concentration. Prediction accuracy during the sunset transition, which coincides with the onset of the feedlot evening dust peak, remains an area for further refinement. These findings demonstrate the feasibility of image-based PM10 estimation across PM concentration ranges substantially exceeding those reported in prior urban studies and provide practical guidelines for future deployment in feedlot environments.