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arXiv · 2609.25512

West-WRF AI 2-km: High-Resolution Prediction of Integrated Vapor Transport and Precipitation

Nazak Rouzegari·Vesta Afzali Gorooh·Agniv Sengupta·Phu Nguyen·Kuo-Lin Hsu·Amir AghaKouchak·Soroosh Sorooshian·F. Martin Ralph·Luca Delle Monache
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Abstract

We introduce a stretched-grid artificial intelligence (AI) weather forecasting model with 2-km resolution over the western United States and part of the Northeast Pacific and approximately 31-km resolution elsewhere globally. Forecasting over the western U.S. is challenging because complex topography and atmospheric rivers (ARs) strongly influence orographic precipitation. West-WRF AI 2-km builds on a global model pretrained with a 40-year European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Reanalysis v5 (ERA5) dataset and is fine-tuned with the Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes (CW3E) 2-km regional reanalysis to produce autoregressive 6-hourly forecasts of precipitation and integrated vapor transport (IVT). Forecasts are evaluated over winters 2020-2023 using gridded precipitation observations, rain gauges, and AR Reconnaissance dropsondes and are benchmarked against coarser-resolution AI forecasts and regional and global numerical weather prediction (NWP) systems. West-WRF AI 2-km reproduces observed precipitation-intensity distributions, retains fine-scale spectral variability, and produces sharper narrow coastal precipitation bands and localized, terrain-sensitive extremes. Its broader-scale performance remains comparable to coarser-resolution configurations while preserving large-scale skill despite higher resolution. Dropsonde verification shows lower errors and improved categorical skill at the most extreme IVT threshold. Overall, West-WRF AI 2-km provides its greatest value for localized precipitation extremes and intense AR-related moisture transport.

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Nazak Rouzegari, Vesta Afzali Gorooh, Agniv Sengupta, Phu Nguyen, Kuo-Lin Hsu, Amir AghaKouchak, Soroosh Sorooshian, F. Martin Ralph, Luca Delle Monache. 2026-09-22. West-WRF AI 2-km: High-Resolution Prediction of Integrated Vapor Transport and Precipitation. https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.25512

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