Searcharxiv⌕ Search
Home/Archive/arXiv

arXiv · 2609.26822

HARN: Hierarchical Associative Resonance Network for Event-Driven Multi-Timeframe Forecasting

Nabeel Ahmad Saidd
View original source ↗Read source document ↗Export metadata ↓

Abstract

Financial time series evolve across multiple temporal resolutions, challenging forecasting systems to incorporate newly available information without repeatedly recomputing unchanged representations. We introduce HARN, a Hierarchical Associative Resonance Network for event-driven multi-timeframe forecasting. HARN maintains persistent representations across temporal levels and updates each level only when its corresponding completed bar becomes available. The architecture combines causal multi-scale temporal encoding, gated associative memory, cross-level resonance, and hierarchical evidence aggregation, with forecasting performed in basis-point space and reconstructed to the original price scale. We evaluate HARN on four assets spanning equity, foreign exchange, and commodity markets using multiple random seeds and component ablations. HARN achieves competitive reconstructed-price forecasting errors against single-timeframe PatchTST and TimeXer baselines, while ablations reveal the effects of removing individual components across assets and timeframes. A code-level audit further examines consistency between the implementation and the defined event-driven causal protocol. The results position HARN as a persistent multi-timeframe forecasting framework rather than evidence of universal predictive superiority.

Explore related subjects

cs.LGq-fin.CPq-fin.GN

Keep this discovery

Explore connections, maps & timelines

BibTeXRIS

Nabeel Ahmad Saidd. 2026-09-20. HARN: Hierarchical Associative Resonance Network for Event-Driven Multi-Timeframe Forecasting. https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.26822

Cite the original work for its findings. Save a collection to share your selection of sources.

KEEP EXPLORING

Related papers

arXiv2026

Policy Learning with a Language Bottleneck

Modern AI systems such as self-driving cars and game-playing agents can achieve superhuman performance, but often lack human-like generalization, interpretability, and inter-operability with human users. Inspired by the rich interactions between language and decision-making in humans, we introduce Policy Learning with a Language Bottleneck (PLLB), a framework enabling AI agents to generate linguistic rules that capture the high-level strategies underlying rewarding behaviors. PLLB alternates between a *rule generation* step guided by language models, and an *update* step where agents learn new policies guided by rules, even when a rule is insufficient to describe an entire complex policy. Across five diverse tasks, including a two-player signaling game, maze navigation, image reconstruction, and robot grasp planning, we show that PLLB agents are not only able to learn more interpretable and generalizable behaviors, but can also share the learned rules with human users, enabling more effective human-AI coordination. We provide source code for our experiments at https://github.com/meghabyte/bottleneck .

cs.LG↗
arXiv2026

BEAT: Balanced Frequency Adaptive Tuning for Long-Term Time-Series Forecasting

Long-term time-series forecasting supports a wide range of applications, including weather prediction and electricity demand planning. Frequency-domain methods address this task by decomposing observations into components that describe temporal variations at different scales. However, separate representations do not by themselves provide an explicit mechanism for adjusting the training emphasis across components. Under a shared forecasting objective, the frequency-specific networks can retain different levels of coefficient prediction error, motivating an error-dependent adjustment to their gradients. To this end, we propose BEAT (Balanced frEquency Adaptive Tuning), a framework that combines frequency-specific error monitoring with adaptive gradient modulation. We design a Frequency-Specific Monitor that compares predicted and target wavelet coefficients in a common normalized space and expresses each discrepancy relative to a reference error computed from the detail components. We further introduce a Dynamical Gradient Balancer that converts these ratios into positive, bounded coefficients. Components with higher relative errors receive larger gradient weights, whereas those with lower relative errors receive smaller weights. A shared modulation-strength parameter controls the departure from unmodulated training, and the monitoring and balancing operations are used only during training. Experiments on seven real-world datasets show that BEAT achieves competitive performance against state-of-the-art forecasting methods.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2026

C-LoRA: Continual Low-Rank Adaptation for Pre-trained Visual Models

Pre-trained visual models have become fundamental in computer vision, but they face challenges in continual learning scenarios where data and tasks evolve over time. Low-Rank Adaptation (LoRA) offers efficient fine-tuning capabilities but remains limited for such dynamic environments. Standard LoRA cannot distinguish important subspaces, causing critical knowledge to be overwritten in sequential training. Existing approaches address this by dynamically expanding the set of LoRA adapters, either maintaining a growing pool of task-specific modules or merging new adapters into prior ones, at the cost of unbounded parameter growth or increasing inference complexity. We propose Continual Low-Rank Adaptation (C-LoRA), a method that enables a single, shared LoRA adapter to handle sequential tasks without catastrophic forgetting, without requiring any module selection or fusion at inference. The core of C-LoRA is a learnable routing matrix R that explicitly controls how each rank-one subspace contributes to the weight update. This matrix is decomposed into a stability component (R_base), which preserves knowledge from prior tasks, and a plasticity component (R_delta), which drives adaptation to the current task, providing direct control over the stability-plasticity trade-off. We analyze how R governs gradient flow during sequential training, and demonstrate competitive performance across multiple benchmarks.

cs.LG↗