A Census of Stellar-mass Black Holes in the Milky Way with POPKIN. I. Isolated Black Holes

Abstract

Gravitational-wave observations have revealed hundreds of stellar-mass black holes, yet only about two dozen are known in the Milky Way, almost all in binaries. We present POPKIN, a Python framework that couples single- and binary-star evolution with Galactic orbital dynamics to trace black-hole progenitors from the zero-age main sequence to the present-day isolated black-hole (IBH) population. Across ten models varying the supernova (SN) prescription, mass-transfer efficiency, and common-envelope ejection efficiency, the total IBH abundance is controlled primarily by the SN prescription. Our fiducial model, with a recently proposed metallicity- and stripping-history-dependent SN prescription, predicts $\sim4\times10^7$ IBHs in the Galaxy, including $\sim8\times10^4$ within $1\,\rm{kpc}$ of the Sun; alternative SN prescriptions predict $\sim(1-2)\times10^8$ IBHs. The fiducial model yields a bimodal mass distribution, peaking near $9\,M_{\odot}$ and $20\,M_{\odot}$, with a deficit at $13-17\,M_{\odot}$. This distinguishes it from alternative prescriptions, some of which populate the $2-5\,M_{\odot}$ mass-gap region. Non-kicked IBHs follow nearly circular orbits near the Galactic plane, with typical peculiar velocities of $20-30\,\rm{km\,s^{-1}}$, whereas kicked systems undergo stronger radial migration and span a broader velocity range. We estimate $\sim5\times10^3$ accreting IBHs with $F_{\rm X}>10^{-14}\,\rm{erg\,s^{-1}\,cm^{-2}}$, nearly all non-kicked; this estimate is sensitive to the adopted radiative-efficiency and hot-flow treatments. For a Roman-like bulge survey, our fiducial model predicts $\sim360$ intrinsic IBH microlensing events over five years in a $1.70\,\rm{deg^2}$ effective area, before survey-selection effects. We propose that long-timescale microlensing events from IBHs can strongly constrain the SN physics governing stellar-mass black hole formation.