From Early Participation to Later Completion: Evidence from a Large-Scale Self-Paced Learning Programme

Abstract

Large-scale learning programmes generate records that make learner participation observable across different activities. Participation points are commonly used to record and encourage such participation, but their value may extend beyond the activities for which points are awarded. Existing evaluations often examine gamification outcomes within the activities or learning environments in which the game elements are implemented, providing limited evidence about whether early participation points contain information about later participation outside the points system. This study examines whether early participation points can provide information about learners' later participation in a self-paced learning track that does not award participation points. Using anonymised records from 876 learners in a large-scale remote software-upskilling internship, we examined participation points generated from live-session attendance and poll responses against later self-paced course completion. The primary analysis used the 438 learners who earned at least one point during the first week, while the full cohort was retained for the no-point analysis. Week-one participation points distinguished learners who later completed a self-paced course with an AUC of 0.89, increasing to 0.95 by the fourth week. Similar AUCs were observed at both stages of the self-paced course sequence, while the absence of week-one points identified learners who did not start or did not complete a self-paced course with 95% precision. These findings indicate that early participation points can provide information about later participation outside the activities that generate the points. Such information can help large-scale learning programmes identify learners who may require timely attention while learning is still in progress, without treating participation points as a measure of overall learner engagement.