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arXiv · 2609.39809

A Stage-Structured Deterministic Model of Fall Armyworm Infestation on Maize Farming

Donald Okoth Ojwang·Mamadou Pathe Ly·Shaibu Osman
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Abstract

Fall Armyworm (FAW) poses a serious threat to maize production in many regions due to its aggressive feeding habits and rapid development cycle. In this study, we developed and analyzed a stage-structured mathematical model to evaluate the impact of different FAW larval instars on maize dynamics during the vegetative and reproductive stages. Analytical results indicate that the two models have unique and positively bounded solutions for all time $t\geq 0$ and admit four equilibrium points: the trivial, non-trivial, maize extinction and coexistence equilibria. The behavior of the model was studied using stability analysis to find conditions under which FAW dies out or continues to spread. Furthermore, sensitivity analysis and numerical simulations were conducted to examine how key parameters affect FAW population dynamics and maize. Numerical simulations of the model in both stages indicate that there is high destruction of maize plants in both vegetative and reproductive stages of maize production due to increased egg production and larval population density. The extensive damage caused by large populations of eggs, larvae and adult moths motivated an extension of the two models to include intervention measures such as traditional methods like handpicking and chemical pesticides. Numerical results indicate that these control strategies significantly suppressed the FAW population with a resultant increase in the maize plant population towards its maximum capacity during the vegetative and reproductive stages, respectively.

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Donald Okoth Ojwang, Mamadou Pathe Ly, Shaibu Osman. 2026-09-30. A Stage-Structured Deterministic Model of Fall Armyworm Infestation on Maize Farming. https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.39809

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