A population-level assessment framework for flood-related wellbeing from public discourse in Ireland

Róisín Luo; Karyn Morrissey

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arXiv · 2610.03334

A population-level assessment framework for flood-related wellbeing from public discourse in Ireland

Róisín Luo·Karyn Morrissey

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Abstract

\ textbf{Background.} Ireland's position on the eastern North Atlantic exposes it to moisture-laden westerlies and frequent low-pressure systems, generating abundant precipitation and substantial pluvial and fluvial flood risk. Climate change is intensifying heavy rainfall and compound flood risk, with consequences extending beyond physical damage and conventional economic indicators. \ textbf{Method.} We present a framework for assessing flood-related wellbeing from unobtrusive public discourse over time. The framework develops an assessment instrument comprising three complementary constructs: \emph{distress}, \emph{functional disruption}, and \emph{institutional alienation}, capturing flood-related impacts on affective appraisal, daily functioning, and social and institutional connectedness. To enable population-scale analysis of complex cognitive and psychological responses, we develop a dedicated flood-related wellbeing reasoning model (\textsc{Wellbeing-Former}) that reads evidence of flood-related wellbeing, assigns evidence-grounded scores, and produces transparent rationales. \textbf{Data, Results \& Implications.} Using the research platform \textsc{MCL} (Meta Content Library), we construct a flood-related discourse dataset by querying posts from Ireland containing the terms \emph{flood}, \emph{rain}, and \emph{storm}. The resulting dataset comprises approximately \textbf{$224{,}000$} posts produced between 2012 and 2016. We apply the resulting \textsc{Wellbeing-Former} to this dataset to conduct a population-level analysis. This approach provides temporally sensitive evidence of experienced and anticipated flood impacts, complements survey-based assessment, and supports a multidimensional understanding of wellbeing under climate-related hazards for policy development, adaptation planning, public communication, and decision-making.

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Róisín Luo, Karyn Morrissey. 2026-10-02. A population-level assessment framework for flood-related wellbeing from public discourse in Ireland. https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.03334

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