MUTACO: Simulator-Efficient Response Matching in Stochastic Nonlinear Systems via Compatibility-Aware Sequential Design

Abstract

Many physical inverse problems are mediated by expensive stochastic simulators for which response gradients, adjoint sensitivities, or a differentiable simulator interface are unavailable. We introduce Multiple Target-based Confident Acquisition (MUTACO), an uncertainty-aware sequential-design method for response matching that requires only noisy forward evaluations and learns the multicomponent response together with its predictive uncertainty. We develop and evaluate MUTACO for a disordered network of stochastic phase oscillators. The inverse task is to infer statistical properties of the local potential and interactions from macroscopic rotation and synchronization curves under multiple driving conditions. Rather than requiring unique recovery of these statistical properties, MUTACO searches for parameter configurations whose predicted rotation and synchronization responses are compatible with the target response while accounting for predictive uncertainty. This response-centered formulation is appropriate when experimentally accessible observables characterize ensemble statistics rather than a particular microscopic realization. Under strictly limited simulation budgets, MUTACO achieves the lowest held-out response error among the tested adaptive-search, space-filling, and simulation-based inference methods, while also yielding lower parameter-recovery error than the compared methods. These results demonstrate that response-targeted sequential design is a simulator-efficient approach to inverse modeling from finite noisy forward evaluations and suggest broader applicability to stochastic physical systems with correlated multicomponent responses and weakly constrained parameter directions.