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arXiv · 2610.05154

Construction and Evaluation of Machine Learning Models for Near-Real-Time Fire Detection from MTG FCI Imagery

Asaf Vanunu·Boaz Nadler·Arnon Karnieli
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Abstract

Geostationary satellite observations are important for wildfire detection and monitoring. The current study evaluates machine learning models for MTG FCI near-real-time fire detection in 1- and 2-km spatial configurations and compares them with threshold-based algorithms. The models were trained and evaluated using VIIRS fire reference data across diverse ecological regions in Europe, Africa, and the Middle East. The key results are that 1-km models significantly outperform both their 2-km variants and operational threshold products. The constructed 1-km models achieved F1 scores higher by up to 0.36 compared to baseline products. Importantly, the 1-km models detected small fires with higher probability compared to competing models. Finally, the models robustly detected fires up to 260 min earlier than baseline products. To support opensource applications, our trained models are publicly available.

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Asaf Vanunu, Boaz Nadler, Arnon Karnieli. 2026-10-04. Construction and Evaluation of Machine Learning Models for Near-Real-Time Fire Detection from MTG FCI Imagery. https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.05154

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