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arXiv · 2610.12521

The Role of Tick Questing Behavior and Host-Finding Success in Borrelia burgdorferi Transmission in the Eastern United States

Carli Peterson·Erika Gallo·Christopher M. Kribs
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Abstract

The marked difference in reported human Lyme disease cases between the northeastern and southeastern United States remains a significant concern. Differences in biodiversity and the questing behavior of Ixodes scapularis, the primary vector of Borrelia burgdorferi, the causative agent of Lyme disease, have been proposed as key drivers of geographic variation in disease incidence. In this study, we investigate how these differences, together with ratio-dependent tick-host contact rates, contribute to the north-south gap in Lyme disease cases. Building on our previous work, we develop a discrete-time system of difference equations to model infection dynamics between ticks and their sylvatic hosts. We derive an expression for the basic reproductive number and vary key parameters to assess their impact on infection persistence. We further examine the effects of these mechanisms on nymphal infection prevalence (NIP) and the density of infected nymphs (DIN), two key metrics for predicting disease risk. Our results indicate that under baseline conditions, southern host communities exhibit lower infection prevalence and reduced potential for pathogen invasion, consistent with observed regional patterns. However, southern host communities can support sustained transmission with different questing behaviors. Notably, this qualitative north-south difference emerges using parameter values obtained from the literature, without calibrating the model to reproduce geographic differences in disease prevalence. In addition, ratio-dependent host-finding success shows a saturating effect on the basic reproductive number, compared to the traditional assumption of density-independent host-finding success. These results highlight the importance of biodiversity, tick questing behavior, and using multiple metrics when assessing Lyme disease risk.

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Carli Peterson, Erika Gallo, Christopher M. Kribs. 2026-10-07. The Role of Tick Questing Behavior and Host-Finding Success in Borrelia burgdorferi Transmission in the Eastern United States. https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.12521

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