Searcharxiv⌕ Search
Home/Archive/arXiv

arXiv · 2610.12789

EvoBelief: Falsifiable World Models for Self-Improving LLM Agents

Janet Wang·Jiang Guo·Yi Xiang·Jiaqing Yuan·Mingwen Dong·Hideo Kobayashi·Shuaichen Chang·Chandan K. Reddy·Jiarong Jiang
View original source ↗Read source document ↗Export metadata ↓

Abstract

Self-evolving LLM agents typically improve how they act through accumulated experience, reflection, or skills. Yet even procedurally capable agents can fail when their beliefs about environment dynamics are incomplete, incorrect, or outdated. We study a complementary axis of self-evolution: evolving those beliefs during deployment. Such beliefs can support multiple tasks, but incorrect ones can also propagate across them. We introduce EvoBelief, a self-evolving world model that represents environment knowledge as falsifiable hypotheses. Unexpected outcomes and decision-relevant unknowns trigger hypothesis formation. Later observations and controlled experiments provide independent validation before a rule can guide predictions or plans within its supported scope. Counterexamples narrow or retire rules as the environment changes. The language model remains frozen, and each rule remains linked to its evidence and the decisions it changes. Across four benchmarks spanning static dynamics, hidden drift, and scientific discovery, EvoBelief improves task performance and reuses learned rules across tasks. On ALFWorld without actor-side transition memory, it improves success over the matched Frozen World Model by 23.9% and 31.3% with Claude Haiku 4.5 and GPT-5.4, respectively. On MiniGrid, it revises stale rules and recovers after unannounced dynamics changes. In DiscoveryWorld's Reactor Lab, it discovers and validates quantitative laws, completing 83.3% of Normal-tier and 58.3% of Challenge-tier instances, versus 0% for each evaluated baseline. These results demonstrate self-improvement through testable, revisable environment knowledge rather than model-parameter updates.

Explore related subjects

cs.AI

Keep this discovery

Explore connections, maps & timelines

BibTeXRIS

Janet Wang, Jiang Guo, Yi Xiang, Jiaqing Yuan, Mingwen Dong, Hideo Kobayashi, Shuaichen Chang, Chandan K. Reddy, Jiarong Jiang. 2026-10-08. EvoBelief: Falsifiable World Models for Self-Improving LLM Agents. https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.12789

Cite the original work for its findings. Save a collection to share your selection of sources.

KEEP EXPLORING

Related papers

arXiv2026

Failure-Driven Workflow Refinement

Optimizing LLM-based workflows is typically formulated as a global search, where candidate workflows are evaluated based on a scalar metric. This paradigm, however, suffers from a critical flaw: information collapse. By reducing rich, multi-step execution traces to simple success/failure signals, existing methods are rendered blind to the underlying structure of failures, fundamentally preventing them from modeling the workflow's failure distribution. We reconceptualize this challenge as a distributional problem. We propose a new paradigm where the optimization goal is not to maximize a scalar score, but to directly minimize a workflow's Expected Failure Mass, i.e., the integral of its failure probability density function defined over a high-dimensional Failure Signature Space (FSS). This distributional lens allows us to move from inefficient, zero-order optimization to a principled, gradient-like descent on the failure landscape itself. We introduce CE-Graph, a framework that operationalizes this paradigm through a novel, failure-driven refinement process. CE-Graph approximates the failure distribution from a pool of counterexamples, identifies its densest regions as recurring failure modes, and applies targeted, operator-constrained graph edits via a Propose-and-Verify mechanism to greedily reduce the failure mass. On math, code, and QA benchmarks, our CE-Graph achieves higher robustness at a significantly lower cost than strong baselines. This suggests that a system's reliability emerges not from avoiding failures, but from systematically learning and reshaping the geometric structure of its failure distributions.

cs.AI↗
arXiv2026

Payoff scaling shapes cooperation in LLM agents across languages

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly deployed as autonomous agents that negotiate, coordinate, and make decisions on behalf of human users. Understanding how they cooperate is therefore important for AI governance and machine behaviour research. We examine two factors: payoff magnitude and interaction language. Classical game theory predicts that multiplying all payoffs by a positive constant should not change behaviour because the underlying strategic incentives remain unchanged. We test this prediction using five widely adopted commercial LLMs playing an iterated prisoner's dilemma across ten payoff scales and five languages (English, French, Vietnamese, Chinese and Arabic). Contrary to theoretical expectations, changing only the numerical scale of payoffs substantially alters cooperation. Models respond differently, often in opposite directions, meaning that averages across models can conceal important behavioural heterogeneity. Sensitivity to payoff scale also depends strongly on prompt language. Moreover, payoff scale modifies the effects of persona instructions: at sub-unit stakes, where no payoff shown exceeds 1, all five models cooperate more under a selfish than a cooperative persona, whereas Claude and Gemini reverse this pattern at larger scales. These findings show that cooperation measures depend critically on payoff scale and language and should not be treated as fixed model traits.

cs.AI↗
arXiv2026

An Alternative Trajectory for Generative AI

The generative artificial intelligence (AI) ecosystem is undergoing rapid transformations that threaten its sustainability. As models transition from research prototypes to high-traffic products, the energetic burden has shifted from one-time training to recurring, unbounded inference. This is exacerbated by reasoning models that inflate compute costs by orders of magnitude per query. The prevailing pursuit of artificial general intelligence through scaling of monolithic models is colliding with hard physical constraints: grid failures, water consumption, and diminishing returns on data scaling. This trajectory yields models with impressive factual recall but struggles in domains requiring in-depth reasoning, possibly due to insufficient abstractions in training data. Current large language models (LLMs) exhibit genuine reasoning depth only in domains like mathematics and coding, where rigorous, pre-existing abstractions provide structural grounding. In other fields, the current approach fails to generalize well. We propose an alternative trajectory based on domain-specific superintelligence (DSS). We argue for first constructing explicit symbolic abstractions (knowledge graphs, ontologies, and formal logic) to underpin synthetic curricula enabling small language models to master domain-specific reasoning without the model collapse problem typical of LLM-based synthetic data methods. Rather than a single generalist giant model, we envision "societies of DSS models": dynamic ecosystems where orchestration agents route tasks to distinct DSS back-ends. This paradigm shift decouples capability from size, enabling intelligence to migrate from energy-intensive data centers to secure, on-device experts. By aligning algorithmic progress with physical constraints, DSS societies move generative AI from an environmental liability to a sustainable force for economic empowerment.

cs.AI↗