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arXiv · 2610.17085

Superintelligence and the Triple Risk of an AI Race

Matthew Rendall·Max Hellrigel-Holderbaum·Leonard Dung
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Abstract

On many estimates, artificial general intelligence (AGI) is likely to emerge within the next few decades or even sooner. Once it does, it may quickly surpass human intelligence, possibly by a huge margin. Some believe that the country that develops AGI first could attain global dominance. This prospect risks setting off intense competition between the United States and China. Indeed, a narrative has already developed that the superpowers are locked in an AI race, with the Trump administration proclaiming its determination to 'dismantle unnecessary regulatory barriers' to winning it. We argue that this approach presents three profound dangers. The first two are familiar from past arms races: being overtaken by a rival or triggering a war. The third is new: losing control of human beings' future to agents far more intelligent than we are, which could endanger our very survival. Striving to get to AGI first risks a race to the bottom on safety practices and regulation concerning them. China does not yet appear bent on racing to superintelligence. The United States should prioritise both unilateral and co-operative efforts to improve AI safety and avoid provoking a race that all humanity could lose.

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Matthew Rendall, Max Hellrigel-Holderbaum, Leonard Dung. 2026-10-12. Superintelligence and the Triple Risk of an AI Race. https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.17085

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