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arXiv · 2610.17231

The Buffett Effect

Pawel Robert Smolinski·Siddharth Saridevi
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Abstract

We study whether stock disclosures by recognizable investors generate abnormal market reactions beyond the reactions produced by comparable but non-recognizable managers. We define the Buffett effect as the incremental abnormal return to a disclosed new position that is attributable to the public recognition of the disclosing investor. We construct a recognition index from Wikipedia pageviews and ProQuest news mentions. Using data from 2000 to 2025 we compare market reaction to disclosures of 24 recognizable discretionary funds with disclosures of 24 matched control funds. New-position disclosures by recognizable managers generate a positive disclosure premium over the filing date and the following trading days, and the premium increases with investor recognition. We construct calendar-time portfolios that mechanically copy each group's disclosed purchases and find that copying the most recognized investors earns a significant alpha that persists for months and does not reverse. The evidence is most consistent with an entangled attention-information channel: investor recognition directs scarce investor attention toward selected disclosures, and the information revealed in those disclosures is then capitalized into prices.

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Pawel Robert Smolinski, Siddharth Saridevi. 2026-10-12. The Buffett Effect. https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.17231

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