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arXiv · 2610.23624

Wake effects in a 100 GW North Sea offshore wind scenario: a model intercomparison under year-round weather conditions

Jhon J. Quiñones·Diego Siguenza-Alvarado·Peter Baas·Pim Van Dorp·Majid Bastankhah·Remco A. Verzijlbergh
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Abstract

Large-scale offshore wind development will intensify wake interactions between wind farm clusters in the North Sea, increasing uncertainty in regional energy estimates. We assess HARMONIE-AROME mesoscale simulations, ASPIRE large-eddy simulations (LES), and three engineering wake models based on Jensen, Bastankhah Gaussian, and TurbOPark formulations for a 100.7 GW 2050 offshore wind scenario. We find that LES and mesoscale simulations accurately represent observed local free-stream wind conditions. Moreover, all engineering wake models predict higher mean wind speeds than LES in every month, with biases reaching 0.60-0.70 m/s at 10-40 km downstream. These differences also vary systematically with atmospheric regime: the Bastankhah Gaussian model remains positively biased across wind speed and stability conditions, whereas Jensen and TurbOPark shift from underprediction in unstable and near-neutral conditions to overprediction in stable conditions at 8-12 m/s. These results show that agreement in annual capacity factor can conceal substantial differences across space, time, and atmospheric regime, highlighting the importance of including sensitivity to model formulation in regional wind energy assessments.

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Jhon J. Quiñones, Diego Siguenza-Alvarado, Peter Baas, Pim Van Dorp, Majid Bastankhah, Remco A. Verzijlbergh. 2026-10-16. Wake effects in a 100 GW North Sea offshore wind scenario: a model intercomparison under year-round weather conditions. https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.23624

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