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arXiv · 2610.24388

Hidden urban exposure to energy-price shocks: spreading burdens and shifting hotspots

Yunfei Bai·Aaron Tesfa Tsion·Raúl Rosales·Barbara Shollock·Wei He
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Abstract

Cities need to anticipate where energy-price shocks could intensify hardship beyond established hotspots. How income distributions and fuel-price balances jointly shape this hidden exposure remains unclear. Here we address this gap by stress-testing nearly one million properties in six English local authorities, combining required-energy costs for existing housing with modelled local income distributions. Under gas-led crisis prices, 41% of neighbourhoods in the highest local exposure quarter lie outside the highest official fuel-poverty quarter. Electricity-led stress changes this hidden geography: when electricity unit prices alone triple from 2021, comparable to the unmitigated late-2022 cap increase, 38% of the resulting hidden-exposure group are absent from the crisis-based group. Entering neighbourhoods have newer, more efficient housing, more flats and greater electricity dependence than retained areas. Crisis preparedness should extend household protection beyond current hardship hotspots, using fuel-specific stress tests to anticipate support needs as fuel prices and heating systems change.

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Yunfei Bai, Aaron Tesfa Tsion, Raúl Rosales, Barbara Shollock, Wei He. 2026-10-17. Hidden urban exposure to energy-price shocks: spreading burdens and shifting hotspots. https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.24388

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