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arXiv · 2610.27836

Agentic discovery of interpretable car-following laws from multi-source trajectory data

Jiamei Xu·Jie Sun·Keshuang Tang·Jian Sun
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Abstract

Car-following (CF) models is a fundamental component of microscopic traffic simulation and underpin the analysis of collective traffic dynamics, while its modeling becomes more challenging due to diverse human driving behaviors and the increasing presence of automated vehicle. Analytical CF models offer interpretable representations of longitudinal vehicle interactions, but their prescribed functional structures may limit the representation of heterogeneous driving behavior. This study proposes an agent-centered, physics-aware framework for the empirical discovery of CF laws from multi-source trajectory data. The framework iteratively combines agent-guided hypothesis generation, informed by traffic flow knowledge and state-dependent reconstruction errors, with evolutionary symbolic search and physics-aware multi-objective evaluation. Using NGSIM US-101, highD, and exiD, the framework discovers the Adaptive Equilibrium Response Model (AERM), which couples state-dependent relative-speed response with spacing-dependent equilibrium-speed restoration. AERM admits analytical equilibrium speed-spacing and flow-density relationships; its stability conditions are derived for the zero-delay formulation, and platoon simulations examine disturbance propagation. Evaluated against seven classical CF models on Shanghai naturalistic driving data, NGSIM I-80, and Waymo trajectories, AERM attains the lowest spacing and speed reconstruction errors under trajectory-specific calibration, reducing spacing RMSE by 9.11%, 7.59%, and 21.73% relative to the strongest baselines, and remains competitive under dataset-level shared parameters. These results demonstrate the fitting flexibility and analytical tractability of the discovered CF law, providing an interpretable basis for microscopic traffic simulation.

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Jiamei Xu, Jie Sun, Keshuang Tang, Jian Sun. 2026-10-20. Agentic discovery of interpretable car-following laws from multi-source trajectory data. https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.27836

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