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arXiv · 2610.31788

Kinetic Proofreading Activation Times Beyond the Weibull Limit

Thomas Mourier·Cameron Hopkinson·Kenny Wong
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Abstract

T cells can detect a few foreign peptide-major histocompatibility complexes (pMHCs) among a far larger number of self pMHCs. Kinetic proofreading explains this discrimination: a receptor that has bound its ligand must complete nKP signaling steps, each at rate kp, before it activates, and dissociation at any step resets its progress. When many receptors are engaged at once, the time to the first activation has been approximated by a Weibull law taken from the short-time limit of this process. The Weibull law is convenient, but it does not contain the dissociation rate koff, even though koff is what proofreading uses to tell ligands apart. Using the exact first- passage law of the underlying continuous-time Markov chain together with stochastic simulations, we show that the relative error of the Weibull law is set by a single dimensionless number Λ, the Weibull-predicted activation time measured in units of nKP + 1 bound-state lifetimes. For Λ < 1 the first receptor to activate does so before its ligand has ever dissociated, and the Weibull law holds. As Λ grows, activation relies increasingly on repeated unbinding and rebinding. The true activation time then exceeds the Weibull prediction by up to 2900-fold on our parameter grid, and the effective Weibull shape falls to one, so activation becomes memoryless instead of timer-like. We derive a closed form that keeps koff by treating the successful pass through the proofreading chain separately from the time lost to failed attempts. It matches exact medians to within 2% in 19 of 25 parameter sets, with a worst case of about 6%, and reproduces the loss of timer-like behavior. Because Λ is computed from the Weibull prediction itself, it shows in advance how far that formula can be trusted; where it cannot, the new expression requires only a one-dimensional root find.

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BibTeXRIS

Thomas Mourier, Cameron Hopkinson, Kenny Wong. 2026-10-22. Kinetic Proofreading Activation Times Beyond the Weibull Limit. https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.31788

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