arXiv2026
We investigate the probabilistic counterpart of Yau's conjecture on the nodal volume of Laplace eigenfunctions on compact manifolds, by studying the high-frequency variance asymptotics of Riemannian random waves. Theorem A gives quantitative bounds on the fluctuations of their nodal volume for all regimes of spectral windows, including the monochromatic one, of spectral size 1. For every non-monochromatic window the variance has the exact order $1/N$, where $N$ is the dimension of the underlying space of eigenfunctions, on any compact manifold. In the monochromatic regime, on manifolds without conjugate points and in particular on negatively curved ones, we prove that the variance is $o(1/N)$: this improves the previous best bound, cf. Canzani and Hanin 2020, to its square divided by a logarithmic factor, and exhibits a form of Berry's cancellation, relative to the natural scale $1/N$, for monochromatic random waves on such chaotic manifolds. Our proofs rely on a local and global analysis combining the Kac-Rice formula, the Wiener--Itô chaos decomposition recently obtained by the authors Stecconi and Todino 2025, and a sharp analysis of the error in the pointwise Weyl law associated to an arbitrary spectral window (Theorem B). We also introduce a general machinery (Theorem C) that yields variance decay for the nodal volume of an arbitrary Gaussian field under broad geometric conditions, subject to correlation decay assumptions.