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arXiv · 2610.41832

Pareto climate economics: optimism, pessimism and the polarization of societies

Nicola Botta·Patrik Jansson·Tim Richter
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Abstract

We argue that simple conceptual models of the relation between short-term efforts in climate mitigation and adaptation policies (STECM&AP) and possible climate damages can help understanding the difficulties of increasing public support for a transition towards sustainable, decarbonized economies. Specifically, we show that, under fairly general conditions, mistrust and pessimism tend to polarize support for either minimal ``business as usual'' policies or maximal ``all-in climate mitigation efforts'' choices. Under the same conditions, trust and optimism tend to de-polarize societies towards moderate climate mitigation and adaptation (CM&A) policies and promote social consensus. If the relation between short-term efforts and possible climate damages can be quantified via empirical or model data, Pareto climate economics can be applied to extend these conceptual models and support climate decision making with trustable computational methods.

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Nicola Botta, Patrik Jansson, Tim Richter. 2026-10-30. Pareto climate economics: optimism, pessimism and the polarization of societies. https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.41832

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