Nonequilibrium Transient Centers in Continuous-Time Systems

Abstract

Analysis of mathematical models in ecology and epidemiology often emphasizes asymptotic dynamics, such as stable equilibria, periodic orbits, and attractors. However, many biologically relevant trajectories exhibit long transient dynamics in which a relevant observable evolves slowly for an extended period before a comparatively rapid transition occurs. On finite time scales relevant to data collection, management, and intervention, such transient behavior can be more informative than the eventual asymptotic outcome. In this work, we study long-lasting and slowly varying transient dynamics in continuous-time systems through the framework of nonequilibrium transient centers. These centers are points in the state space near which the observable can remain nearly constant for a long time, even when the full state is not near an equilibrium. We develop finite-time escape criteria for identifying such centers and their reachable counterparts. These criteria provide practical conditions under which nearby trajectories can remain in a slow regime for a long period of time before eventually leaving it. We apply the theory to an epidemic model with delay of stability loss. In this model, trajectories may remain close to the disease-free manifold for a long time before the infectious population resurges. The framework developed here describes this behavior as slow evolution near a nonequilibrium transient center followed by finite-time escape from the slow regime.