What matters in classical machine learning for non-intrusive load monitoring? A factorial benchmark on REFIT with validation on unseen houses

Abstract

Published classical machine-learning results for appliance ON/OFF classification in nonintrusive load monitoring (NILM) range from F1-type scores of 0.53 to 0.98, and the sources of this spread have not been separated. This study separates them with a factorial benchmark on REFIT: seven models, two feature sets and four class-imbalance strategies for five appliances (270 fitted configurations), each evaluated by pooled nested cross-validation and on houses unseen during training, with robustness checks. An analysis of variance shows that the appliance explains 38% of the variance in F1, the feature set 13% and the model only 8%. Engineered rolling-window features raised the mean F1 score by 52% under both protocols. Other conclusions changed on unseen houses: the support-weighted F1 score of the best pooled configurations fell from 0.548 to 0.447, the differences between the models selected by pooled validation were no longer significant, and the benefit of class weighting over no correction rose from 32% to 69%. In a nested comparison, house-grouped selection on the training houses improved F1 on unseen houses for three of five appliances, by up to 0.110, and was within 0.007 for the other two. These findings held across four house partitions and without the solar-affected houses. A same-protocol convolutional network reached a weighted F1 score of 0.50, about 0.05 above the classical models (0.45) and far below the published deep-learning scores of 0.78 to 0.91, which were obtained under a different protocol. The results support low-cost appliance monitoring in buildings and yield a NILM reporting checklist.