A resident-traveller model for global aspects of vaccination

Julien Arino; P. van den Driessche

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arXiv · 2611.01555

A resident-traveller model for global aspects of vaccination

Julien Arino·P. van den Driessche

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Abstract

A model for the spread of a vaccine-preventable infectious disease is set in a resident-traveller metapopulation context to investigate global aspects of vaccination. Of particular interest here is the effect of varying vaccine coverage in some patches on the spread of disease in the whole system. Analytically and numerically, the resident-traveller framework is compared with a classic metapopulation model where individuals become residents of the patch they move to. A numerical example inspired by the 2003--2004 poliomyelitis resurgence in western and central Africa is then considered, illustrating how heterogeneous vaccine coverage can sustain widespread regional transmission that classic metapopulation models predict to be much smaller.

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Julien Arino, P. van den Driessche. 2026-11-01. A resident-traveller model for global aspects of vaccination. https://arxiv.org/abs/2611.01555

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