arXiv2026
A $β$-biased monotonic random walk in the plane moves from $(x,y)$ to $(x+1,y)$ or $(x,y+1)$ with probabilities $1/(β+1)$ and $β/(β+1)$. We study $Φ_β(α,d)$, the probability that the walk started at the origin ever visits a lattice point strictly above the line $y=αx+d$, and $Ψ_β(α,d)$, the probability that it visits a lattice point \emph{on} the line after leaving the origin. For integer slopes $α=p$ we show $Φ_β(p,d)=ρ^{\lfloor d\rfloor+1}$, where $ρ$ is the smallest positive root of $y^{p+1}-(β+1)y+β=0$, give the Fuss--Catalan series for $ρ$, identify $ρ$ with the extinction probability of a Galton--Watson process, and compute the exact law and mean of the first crossing point. We prove that the return probability is $Ψ_β(p,0)=(p+1)(1-β/((β+1)ρ))$, which equals $(p+1)/(β+1)$ for $β\ge p$. For rational slopes $α=r/s$ we obtain $Φ_β$ in closed form from the $s$ large roots of the kernel $\tfracβ{β+1}z^{r+s}-z^r+\tfrac1{β+1}$, and $Ψ_β$ as a ratio of Green's functions. For arbitrary real $α$ we prove that the walk crosses every line $y=αx+d$ almost surely if and only if $β\geα$, and we establish the two-sided bound $e^{-θ(d+1)}\leΦ_β(α,d) β$.