Biases in Cometary Catalogues and Planet X

Abstract

Two sets of investigators -- Murray (1999) and Matese, Whitman & Whitmire (1999) -- have recently claimed evidence for an undiscovered Solar System planet from possible great circle alignments in the aphelia directions of the long period comets. However, comet discoveries are bedevilled by selection effects. These include anomalies caused by the excess of observers in the northern as against the southern hemisphere, seasonal and diurnal biases, directional effects which make it harder to discover comets in certain regions of the sky, as well as sociological biases. The stream proposed by Murray is shown on an equal area Hammer-Aitoff projection. The addition of newer data weakens the case for the alignment. There is also evidence that the subsample in the stream is affected by seasonal and north-south biases. The stream proposed by Matese et al. is most obvious in the sample of dynamically new comets, and especially in those whose orbits are best known. The most recent data continues to maintain the overpopulation in this great circle. This pattern in the data occurs about once in a thousand times by chance. Numerical integrations are used to demonstrate that a planet by itself can reduce the perihelia of comets in its orbital plane to sufficiently small values so that they could be discovered from the Earth. There is a need for a sample of long period comets that is free from unknown or hard-to-model selection effects. Such will be provided by the European Space Agency satellite GAIA.