Mapping inspiral rates on population synthesis parameters

Abstract

Formation rates of compact-object binaries are often derived from population synthesis calculations. However, such calculations depend sensitively on a relatively large number of model input parameters. Given considerable uncertainty in those model parameters, the predicted inspiral rates for double compact objects relevant to gravitational-wave interferometric detectors have been shown to be are uncertain by several orders of magnitude. Typically, inspiral rates are estimated for only a small set of models with a remarkably poor coverage of the highly multi-dimensional parameter space (primarily because of limited computer resources). Here, using as an example seven population-synthesis model parameters, we show that it is possible to derive fits of double-compact-object inspiral rates dependent simultaneously on all seven parameters. We find these fits to be accurate to 50% for binary black holes and to 40% for binary neutron stars. The availability of such fits implies that (i) depending on the problem of interest, it is not necessary to complete large numbers of computationally demanding population synthesis calculations; and (ii) for the first time, the sufficient exploration of the relevant phase space and the assessment of the uncertainties involved is not limited by computational resources and becomes feasible. Finally, we have also produced a histogram of the (a priori likely) binary black hole inpsiral rate, assuming our population synthesis models are equally likely. This histogram, effectively an a priori probability distribution for the BH-BH inspiral rate, suggests that merger rate is conservatively bounded below by 10^(-8)/yr/Milky-Way-galaxy.