Predicting solar cycle 24 with a solar dynamo model

Arnab Rai Choudhuri; Piyali Chatterjee; Jie Jiang

doi:10.1103/physrevlett.98.131103

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Predicting solar cycle 24 with a solar dynamo model

Arnab Rai Choudhuri·Piyali Chatterjee·Jie Jiang

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Abstract

Whether the upcoming cycle 24 of solar activity will be strong or not is being hotly debated. The solar cycle is produced by a complex dynamo mechanism. We model the last few solar cycles by `feeding' observational data of the Sun's polar magnetic field into our solar dynamo model. Our results fit the observed sunspot numbers of cycles 21-23 extremely well and predict that cycle~24 will be about 35% weaker than cycle~23.

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Arnab Rai Choudhuri, Piyali Chatterjee, Jie Jiang. 2007-01-18. Predicting solar cycle 24 with a solar dynamo model. https://doi.org/10.1103/physrevlett.98.131103

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