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Predictability of large future changes in a competitive evolving population

D. Lamper·S. Howison·N. F. Johnson
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Abstract

The dynamical evolution of many economic, sociological, biological and physical systems tends to be dominated by a relatively small number of unexpected, large changes (`extreme events'). We study the large, internal changes produced in a generic multi-agent population competing for a limited resource, and find that the level of predictability actually increases prior to a large change. These large changes hence arise as a predictable consequence of information encoded in the system's global state.

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D. Lamper, S. Howison, N. F. Johnson. 2001-05-14. Predictability of large future changes in a competitive evolving population. https://doi.org/10.1103/physrevlett.88.017902

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