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Use of the likelihood for measuring the skill of probabilistic forecasts

Stephen Jewson
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Abstract

We define the likelihood and give a number of justifications for its use as a skill measure for probabilistic forecasts. We describe a number of different scores based on the likelihood, and briefly investigate the relationships between the likelihood, the mean square error and the ignorance.

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Stephen Jewson. 2004-01-08. Use of the likelihood for measuring the skill of probabilistic forecasts. https://arxiv.org/abs/physics/0308046

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