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A New Framework for the Assessment and Calibration of Medium Range Ensemble Temperature Forecasts

Stephen Jewson·Anders Brix·Christine Ziehmann
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Abstract

We present a new framework for the assessment and calibration of medium range ensemble temperature forecasts. The method is based on maximising the likelihood of a simple parametric model for the temperature distribution, and leads to some new insights into the predictability of uncertainty.

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Stephen Jewson, Anders Brix, Christine Ziehmann. 2003-08-14. A New Framework for the Assessment and Calibration of Medium Range Ensemble Temperature Forecasts. https://doi.org/10.1002/asl.69

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