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Recurrence intervals between earthquakes strongly depend on history

V. Livina·S. Tuzov·S. Havlin·A. Bunde
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Abstract

We study the statistics of the recurrence times between earthquakes above a certain magnitude M$ in California. We find that the distribution of the recurrence times strongly depends on the previous recurrence time $τ_0$. As a consequence, the conditional mean recurrence time $\hat τ(τ_0)$ between two events increases monotonically with $τ_0$. For $τ_0$ well below the average recurrence time $\ovτ, \hatτ(τ_0)$ is smaller than $\ovτ$, while for $τ_0>\ovτ$, $\hatτ(τ_0)$ is greater than $\ovτ$. Also the mean residual time until the next earthquake does not depend only on the elapsed time, but also strongly on $τ_0$. The larger $τ_0$ is, the larger is the mean residual time. The above features should be taken into account in any earthquake prognosis.

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V. Livina, S. Tuzov, S. Havlin, A. Bunde. 2004-10-28. Recurrence intervals between earthquakes strongly depend on history. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.physa.2004.08.032

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