Is There a Real-Estate Bubble in the US?

Wei-Xing Zhou; Didier Sornette

doi:10.1016/j.physa.2005.06.098

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Is There a Real-Estate Bubble in the US?

Wei-Xing Zhou·Didier Sornette

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Abstract

We analyze the quarterly average sale prices of new houses sold in the USA as a whole, in the northeast, midwest, south, and west of the USA, in each of the 50 states and the District of Columbia of the USA, to determine whether they have grown faster-than-exponential which we take as the diagnostic of a bubble. We find that 22 states (mostly Northeast and West) exhibit clear-cut signatures of a fast growing bubble. From the analysis of the S&P 500 Home Index, we conclude that the turning point of the bubble will probably occur around mid-2006.

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Wei-Xing Zhou, Didier Sornette. 2005-06-03. Is There a Real-Estate Bubble in the US?. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.physa.2005.06.098

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