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Impact of Unexpected Events, Shocking News and Rumours on Foreign Exchange Market Dynamics

Mark McDonald·Omer Suleman·Stacy Williams·Sam Howison·Neil F. Johnson
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Abstract

We analyze the dynamical response of the world's financial community to various types of unexpected events, including the 9/11 terrorist attacks as they unfolded on a minute-by-minute basis. We find that there are various 'species' of news, characterized by how quickly the news get absorbed, how much meaning and importance is assigned to it by the community, and what subsequent actions are then taken. For example, the response to the unfolding events of 9/11 shows a gradual collective understanding of what was happening, rather than an immediate realization. For news items which are not simple economic statements, and hence whose implications are not immediately obvious, we uncover periods of collective discovery during which collective opinions seem to oscillate in a remarkably synchronized way. In the case of a rumour, our findings also provide a concrete example of contagion in inter-connected communities. Practical applications of this work include the possibility of producing selective newsfeeds for specific communities, based on their likely impact.

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Mark McDonald, Omer Suleman, Stacy Williams, Sam Howison, Neil F. Johnson. 2006-07-20. Impact of Unexpected Events, Shocking News and Rumours on Foreign Exchange Market Dynamics. https://doi.org/10.1103/physreve.77.046110

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