Size of Outbreaks Near the Epidemic Threshold

E. Ben-Naim; P. L. Krapivsky

doi:10.1103/physreve.69.050901

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Size of Outbreaks Near the Epidemic Threshold

E. Ben-Naim·P. L. Krapivsky

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Abstract

The spread of infectious diseases near the epidemic threshold is investigated. Scaling laws for the size and the duration of outbreaks originating from a single infected individual in a large susceptible population are obtained. The maximal size of an outbreak n_* scales as N^{2/3} with N the population size. This scaling law implies that the average outbreak size scales as N^{1/3}. Moreover, the maximal and the average duration of an outbreak grow as t_* ~ N^{1/3} and ~ ln N, respectively.

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E. Ben-Naim, P. L. Krapivsky. 2004-02-01. Size of Outbreaks Near the Epidemic Threshold. https://doi.org/10.1103/physreve.69.050901

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