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The Basic Reproductive Number of Ebola and the Effects of Public Health Measures: The Cases of Congo and Uganda

Gerardo Chowell·Nick W. Hengartner·Carlos Castillo-Chavez·Paul W. Fenimore·J. M. Hyman
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Abstract

Despite improved control measures, Ebola remains a serious public health risk in African regions where recurrent outbreaks have been observed since the initial epidemic in 1976. Using epidemic modeling and data from two well-documented Ebola outbreaks (Congo 1995 and Uganda 2000), we estimate the number of secondary cases generated by an index case in the absence of control interventions ($R_0$). Our estimate of $R_0$ is 1.83 (SD 0.06) for Congo (1995) and 1.34 (SD 0.03) for Uganda (2000). We model the course of the outbreaks via an SEIR (susceptible-exposed-infectious-removed) epidemic model that includes a smooth transition in the transmission rate after control interventions are put in place. We perform an uncertainty analysis of the basic reproductive number $R_0$ to quantify its sensitivity to other disease-related parameters. We also analyze the sensitivity of the final epidemic size to the time interventions begin and provide a distribution for the final epidemic size. The control measures implemented during these two outbreaks (including education and contact tracing followed by quarantine) reduce the final epidemic size by a factor of 2 relative the final size with a two-week delay in their implementation.

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Gerardo Chowell, Nick W. Hengartner, Carlos Castillo-Chavez, Paul W. Fenimore, J. M. Hyman. 2005-03-01. The Basic Reproductive Number of Ebola and the Effects of Public Health Measures: The Cases of Congo and Uganda. https://arxiv.org/abs/q-bio/0503006

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