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A minimal stochastic model for influenza evolution

Francesca Tria·Michael Laessig·Luca Peliti·Silvio Franz
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Abstract

We introduce and discuss a minimal individual-based model for influenza dynamics. The model takes into account the effects of specific immunization against viral strains, but also infectivity randomness and the presence of a short-lived strain transcending immunity recently suggested in the literature. We show by simulations that the resulting model exhibits substitution of viral strains along the years, but that their divergence remains bounded. We also show that dropping any of these features results in a drastically different behavior, leading either to the extinction of the disease, to the proliferation of the viral strains, or to their divergence.

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Francesca Tria, Michael Laessig, Luca Peliti, Silvio Franz. 2005-05-18. A minimal stochastic model for influenza evolution. https://doi.org/10.1088/1742-5468%2F2005%2F07%2Fp07008

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