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Álvaro Guinea Juliá

Publications and source records attributed to Álvaro Guinea Juliá.

3 recordsLinked to original sources

Stationary solution for a fractional stochastic delay differential equations with multiple delays

This paper studies a linear stochastic delay differential equation driven by fractional Brownian motion and involving a finite number of discrete delays. The model combines two sources of memory: delayed feedback in the drift and temporal dependence induced by the Hurst parameter of the fractional Brownian motion. We first introduce the fundamental solution associated with the corresponding deterministic delay equation and use it to obtain an explicit representation of the solution. The stochastic convolution with respect to fractional Brownian motion is defined pathwise as a Riemann--Stieltjes integral, using the finite-variation properties of the fundamental solution. This representation allows us to compute the mean and auto-covariance function of the process. Under a delay-independent stability condition on the drift coefficients, we prove that the fundamental solution decays exponentially and derive the long-time behaviour of the stochastic delay equation. In particular, the solution converges in finite-dimensional distributions to a stationary Gaussian process, whose limiting mean and covariance are given explicitly. When the Hurst parameter satisfies \(H>1/2\), we show that the limiting covariance preserves the long-memory behaviour of the driving fractional Brownian motion and decays asymptotically as \(h^{2H-2}\). Finally, by extending the noise to a double-sided fractional Brownian motion, we construct a stationary solution of the equation and prove its uniqueness. The results provide a tractable framework for modelling stationary systems with both delay effects and fractional memory, with potential applications to stochastic volatility, energy modelling, and other time series exhibiting persistence.

math.PR↗

Linear short rate model with several delays

This paper introduces a short rate model in continuous time that adds one or more memory (delay) components to the Merton model (Merton 1970, 1973) or the Vasiček model (Vasiček 1977) for the short rate. The distribution of the short rate in this model is normal, with the mean depending on past values of the short rate, and a limiting distribution exists for certain values of the parameters. The zero coupon bond price is an affine function of the short rate, whose coefficients satisfy a system of delay differential equations. This system can be solved analytically, obtaining a closed formula. An analytical expression for the instantaneous forward rate is given: it satisfies the risk neutral dynamics of the Heath-Jarrow-Morton model. Formulae for both forward looking and backward looking caplets on overnight risk free rates are presented. Finally, the proposed model is calibrated against forward looking caplets on SONIA rates and the United States yield curve.

q-fin.MF↗

Higher order approximation of option prices in Barndorff-Nielsen and Shephard models

We present an approximation method based on the mixing formula (Hull & White 1987, Romano & Touzi 1997) for pricing European options in Barndorff-Nielsen and Shephard models. This approximation is based on a Taylor expansion of the option price. It is implemented using a recursive algorithm that allows us to obtain closed form approximations of the option price of any order (subject to technical conditions on the background driving Lévy process). This method can be used for any type of Barndorff-Nielsen and Shephard stochastic volatility model. Explicit results are presented in the case where the stationary distribution of the background driving Lévy process is inverse Gaussian or gamma. In both of these cases, the approximation compares favorably to option prices produced by the characteristic function. In particular, we also perform an error analysis of the approximation, which is partially based on the results of Das & Langrené (2022). We obtain asymptotic results for the error of the $N^{\text{th}}$ order approximation and error bounds when the variance process satisfies an inverse Gaussian Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process or a gamma Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process.

q-fin.CP↗