arXiv subjects

Ş. İlker Birbil

Publications and source records attributed to Ş. İlker Birbil.

18 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Learning an Interpretable Risk Scoring System for Maximizing Decision Net Benefit

Risk scoring systems are widely used in high-stakes domains to assist decision-making. However, existing approaches often focus on optimizing predictive accuracy or likelihood-based criteria, which may not align with the main goal of maximizing utility. In this paper, we propose a novel risk scoring system that directly optimizes net benefit over a range of decision thresholds. The model is formulated as a sparse integer linear programming problem which enables the construction of a transparent scoring system with integer coefficients, and hence, facilitates interpretation and practical application. We also establish fundamental relationships among net benefit, discrimination, and calibration. Specifically, we derive bounds relating the area under the net benefit curve to a ROC functional, both evaluated on a fixed threshold grid, and show that post-processing can achieve moderate calibration on the training data without decreasing the area under the net benefit curve on that grid. We evaluated our method on multiple public datasets as well as on a large-scale credit risk dataset. This computational study demonstrated that our interpretable method can effectively achieve high net benefit while maintaining competitive discrimination and calibration performance.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

Guided Data Generation for Understanding Model Behavior

We propose a method for generating distributions over the input space as an inspection tool for understanding trained models. Our framework poses questions of the form ``which inputs would make a trained model exhibit a specified behavior?'' and encodes each question through a guidance function. The generated data provide insights into how the models behave. To showcase our framework, we pose queries such as generating distributions of data where a specified label would be predicted by the model, where two distinct models would disagree, where the output is sensitive to parameter perturbations, and where predictions would be risky. Our method can be applied with a variety of classification and regression tasks and on a range of model types.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

Local Violation Certification for Linear Predict-Then-Optimize Pipelines

Data-driven decision pipelines combining predictive machine learning models with downstream optimization software are increasingly used to make high-stakes operational decisions. Certifying the safety, fairness, and reliability of these decisions is essential, yet traditional scenario generation methods rely on repeated random testing, which becomes computationally prohibitive when failure events are rare and offers little insight into why failures occur. We present a framework for local violation certification designed specifically for linear decision pipelines under input uncertainty. We mathematically demonstrate that standard sampling methods fail efficiently for rare violations, motivating a direct structural approach. By analyzing the fixed decision boundary of a deployed pipeline, we show that the local risk of failure can be calculated directly in closed form using a single optimization solve. Furthermore, we introduce an exact sampling procedure and closed-form risk statistics that provide feature-level attributions (identifying which input characteristics contribute most to potential non-compliance) without requiring repetitive random trials or complex sampling algorithms. We demonstrate our approach on an economic power dispatch system subject to emissions regulations, delivering precise, auditable risk assessments at a fraction of the traditional computational cost.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

Generating Input Distributions for Explaining Portfolio Optimization Pipelines

We propose a predict-optimize-explain framework that uses gradient-based sample generation to interpret various portfolio models by identifying macroeconomic conditions that induce specified portfolio outcomes. Unlike traditional feature-importance methods, this approach directly probes decision pipelines (predictive models coupled with portfolio optimization) by constructing economically meaningful what-if questions. We focus on four such questions: under what macroeconomic conditions a predict-then-optimize pipeline closes or reverses its return gap with a predict-and-optimize pipeline; what conditions lead a pipeline to diversify rather than concentrate its allocation; when a pipeline trained on calm markets overtakes one trained through crises; and what conditions would let a pipeline match a benchmark return. These examples illustrate how our framework uncovers key behavioral differences between various decision pipelines. Beyond these cases, the proposed framework is flexible and can support a wide range of probing questions tailored to specific portfolio objectives. Our findings highlight the value of integrating prediction, optimization, and explanation to produce more robust and transparent portfolio strategies.

math.OC↗

arXiv2026

Explainable Optimization: A Call for Interdisciplinary Action

Operations research and management science models support decisions that affect patients, workers, citizens, and public institutions. Decision-makers, such as clinicians approving surgical schedules, planners allocating disaster relief resources, or managers designing workforce rotations, increasingly require clear and actionable justifications that bridge the gap between mathematical optimization outputs and the intuitive reasoning stakeholders need to trust, contest, and implement recommended decisions. Yet the field has traditionally evaluated optimization models through computational criteria such as feasibility, optimality, scalability, and solution time, while treating explanation as a secondary concern. Mathematical transparency, provided through access to objectives, constraints, shadow prices, or sensitivity reports, does not automatically offer the forms of justification that stakeholders need to understand, trust, contest, or implement optimization-based decisions. This paper calls for the development of explainable optimization (XOpt) as a distinct interdisciplinary area that moves beyond algorithmic efficiency and incorporates behavioral, cognitive, and pragmatic perspectives to address this explanatory deficit.

math.OC↗

arXiv2026

Output-Constrained Decision Trees

Incorporating domain-specific constraints into machine learning models is essential for generating predictions that are both accurate and feasible in real-world applications. This paper introduces new methods for training Output-Constrained Regression Trees (OCRT), addressing the limitations of traditional decision trees in constrained multi-target regression tasks. We propose three approaches: M-OCRT, which uses split-based mixed integer programming to enforce constraints; E-OCRT, which employs an exhaustive search for optimal splits and solves constrained prediction problems at each decision node; and EP-OCRT, which applies post-hoc constrained optimization to tree predictions. To illustrate their potential uses in ensemble learning, we also introduce a random forest framework working under convex feasible sets. We validate the proposed methods through a computational study both on synthetic and industry-driven hierarchical time series datasets. Our results demonstrate that imposing constraints on decision tree training results in accurate and feasible predictions.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

Learning with Subset Stacking

We propose a new regression algorithm that learns from a set of input-output pairs. Our algorithm is designed for populations where the relation between the input variables and the output variable exhibits a heterogeneous behavior across the predictor space. The algorithm starts with generating subsets that are concentrated around random points in the input space. This is followed by training a local predictor for each subset. Those predictors are then combined in a novel way to yield an overall predictor. We call this algorithm "LEarning with Subset Stacking" or LESS, due to its resemblance to the method of stacking regressors. We offer bagging and boosting variants of LESS and test against the state-of-the-art methods on several datasets. Our comparison shows that LESS is highly competitive.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

Counterfactual Explanations for Integer Optimization Problems

Counterfactual explanations (CEs) offer a human-understandable way to explain decisions by identifying specific changes to the input parameters of a base or present model that would lead to a desired change in the outcome. For optimization models, CEs have primarily been studied in limited contexts and little research has been done on CEs for general integer optimization problems. In this work, we address this gap. We first show that the general problem of constructing a CE is $Σ_2^p$-complete even for binary integer programs with just a single mutable constraint. Second, we propose solution algorithms for several of the most tractable special cases: (i) mutable objective parameters, (ii) a single mutable constraint, (iii) mutable right-hand-side, and (iv) all input parameters can be modified. We evaluate our approach using classical knapsack problem instances, focusing on cases with mutable constraint parameters. Additionally, we present experiments on the resource constrained shortest path problem.

math.OC↗

arXiv2025

Rule Generation for Classification: Scalability, Interpretability, and Fairness

We introduce a new rule-based optimization method for classification with constraints. The proposed method leverages column generation for linear programming, and hence, is scalable to large datasets. The resulting pricing subproblem is shown to be NP-Hard. We recourse to a decision tree-based heuristic and solve a proxy pricing subproblem for acceleration. The method returns a set of rules along with their optimal weights indicating the importance of each rule for learning. We address interpretability and fairness by assigning cost coefficients to the rules and introducing additional constraints. In particular, we focus on local interpretability and generalize a separation criterion in fairness to multiple sensitive attributes and classes. We test the performance of the proposed methodology on a collection of datasets and present a case study to elaborate on its different aspects. The proposed rule-based learning method exhibits a good compromise between local interpretability and fairness on the one side, and accuracy on the other side.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

Machine Learning for K-adaptability in Two-stage Robust Optimization

Two-stage robust optimization problems constitute one of the hardest optimization problem classes. One of the solution approaches to this class of problems is K-adaptability. This approach simultaneously seeks the best partitioning of the uncertainty set of scenarios into K subsets, and optimizes decisions corresponding to each of these subsets. In general case, it is solved using the K-adaptability branch-and-bound algorithm, which requires exploration of exponentially-growing solution trees. To accelerate finding high-quality solutions in such trees, we propose a machine learning-based node selection strategy. In particular, we construct a feature engineering scheme based on general two-stage robust optimization insights that allows us to train our machine learning tool on a database of resolved B&B trees, and to apply it as-is to problems of different sizes and/or types. We experimentally show that using our learned node selection strategy outperforms a vanilla, random node selection strategy when tested on problems of the same type as the training problems, also in case the K-value or the problem size differs from the training ones.

math.OC↗

arXiv2024

Counterfactual Explanations for Linear Optimization

The concept of counterfactual explanations (CE) has emerged as one of the important concepts to understand the inner workings of complex AI systems. In this paper, we translate the idea of CEs to linear optimization and propose, motivate, and analyze three different types of CEs: strong, weak, and relative. While deriving strong and weak CEs appears to be computationally intractable, we show that calculating relative CEs can be done efficiently. By detecting and exploiting the hidden convex structure of the optimization problem that arises in the latter case, we show that obtaining relative CEs can be done in the same magnitude of time as solving the original linear optimization problem. This is confirmed by an extensive numerical experiment study on the NETLIB library.

math.OC↗

arXiv2024

Fixing confirmation bias in feature attribution methods via semantic match

Feature attribution methods have become a staple method to disentangle the complex behavior of black box models. Despite their success, some scholars have argued that such methods suffer from a serious flaw: they do not allow a reliable interpretation in terms of human concepts. Simply put, visualizing an array of feature contributions is not enough for humans to conclude something about a model's internal representations, and confirmation bias can trick users into false beliefs about model behavior. We argue that a structured approach is required to test whether our hypotheses on the model are confirmed by the feature attributions. This is what we call the "semantic match" between human concepts and (sub-symbolic) explanations. Building on the conceptual framework put forward in Cinà et al. [2023], we propose a structured approach to evaluate semantic match in practice. We showcase the procedure in a suite of experiments spanning tabular and image data, and show how the assessment of semantic match can give insight into both desirable (e.g., focusing on an object relevant for prediction) and undesirable model behaviors (e.g., focusing on a spurious correlation). We couple our experimental results with an analysis on the metrics to measure semantic match, and argue that this approach constitutes the first step towards resolving the issue of confirmation bias in XAI.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2023

Differentially Private Distributed Bayesian Linear Regression with MCMC

We propose a novel Bayesian inference framework for distributed differentially private linear regression. We consider a distributed setting where multiple parties hold parts of the data and share certain summary statistics of their portions in privacy-preserving noise. We develop a novel generative statistical model for privately shared statistics, which exploits a useful distributional relation between the summary statistics of linear regression. Bayesian estimation of the regression coefficients is conducted mainly using Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms, while we also provide a fast version to perform Bayesian estimation in one iteration. The proposed methods have computational advantages over their competitors. We provide numerical results on both real and simulated data, which demonstrate that the proposed algorithms provide well-rounded estimation and prediction.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2023

Semantic match: Debugging feature attribution methods in XAI for healthcare

The recent spike in certified Artificial Intelligence (AI) tools for healthcare has renewed the debate around adoption of this technology. One thread of such debate concerns Explainable AI (XAI) and its promise to render AI devices more transparent and trustworthy. A few voices active in the medical AI space have expressed concerns on the reliability of Explainable AI techniques and especially feature attribution methods, questioning their use and inclusion in guidelines and standards. Despite valid concerns, we argue that existing criticism on the viability of post-hoc local explainability methods throws away the baby with the bathwater by generalizing a problem that is specific to image data. We begin by characterizing the problem as a lack of semantic match between explanations and human understanding. To understand when feature importance can be used reliably, we introduce a distinction between feature importance of low- and high-level features. We argue that for data types where low-level features come endowed with a clear semantics, such as tabular data like Electronic Health Records (EHRs), semantic match can be obtained, and thus feature attribution methods can still be employed in a meaningful and useful way. Finally, we sketch a procedure to test whether semantic match has been achieved.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2020

Differentially Private Accelerated Optimization Algorithms

We present two classes of differentially private optimization algorithms derived from the well-known accelerated first-order methods. The first algorithm is inspired by Polyak's heavy ball method and employs a smoothing approach to decrease the accumulated noise on the gradient steps required for differential privacy. The second class of algorithms are based on Nesterov's accelerated gradient method and its recent multi-stage variant. We propose a noise dividing mechanism for the iterations of Nesterov's method in order to improve the error behavior of the algorithm. The convergence rate analyses are provided for both the heavy ball and the Nesterov's accelerated gradient method with the help of the dynamical system analysis techniques. Finally, we conclude with our numerical experiments showing that the presented algorithms have advantages over the well-known differentially private algorithms.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2017

HAMSI: A Parallel Incremental Optimization Algorithm Using Quadratic Approximations for Solving Partially Separable Problems

We propose HAMSI (Hessian Approximated Multiple Subsets Iteration), which is a provably convergent, second order incremental algorithm for solving large-scale partially separable optimization problems. The algorithm is based on a local quadratic approximation, and hence, allows incorporating curvature information to speed-up the convergence. HAMSI is inherently parallel and it scales nicely with the number of processors. Combined with techniques for effectively utilizing modern parallel computer architectures, we illustrate that the proposed method converges more rapidly than a parallel stochastic gradient descent when both methods are used to solve large-scale matrix factorization problems. This performance gain comes only at the expense of using memory that scales linearly with the total size of the optimization variables. We conclude that HAMSI may be considered as a viable alternative in many large scale problems, where first order methods based on variants of stochastic gradient descent are applicable.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2017

An Alternative Globalization Strategy for Unconstrained Optimization

We propose a new globalization strategy that can be used in unconstrained optimization algorithms to support rapid convergence from remote starting points. Our approach is based on using multiple points at each iteration to build a representative model of the objective function. Using the new information gathered from those multiple points, a local step is gradually improved by updating its direction as well as its length. We give a global convergence result and also provide parallel implementation details accompanied with a numerical study. Our numerical study shows that the proposed algorithm is a promising alternative as a globalization strategy.

math.OC↗

arXiv2015

Parallel Stochastic Gradient Markov Chain Monte Carlo for Matrix Factorisation Models

For large matrix factorisation problems, we develop a distributed Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method based on stochastic gradient Langevin dynamics (SGLD) that we call Parallel SGLD (PSGLD). PSGLD has very favourable scaling properties with increasing data size and is comparable in terms of computational requirements to optimisation methods based on stochastic gradient descent. PSGLD achieves high performance by exploiting the conditional independence structure of the MF models to sub-sample data in a systematic manner as to allow parallelisation and distributed computation. We provide a convergence proof of the algorithm and verify its superior performance on various architectures such as Graphics Processing Units, shared memory multi-core systems and multi-computer clusters.

stat.ML↗