arXiv subjects

A. A. Mahabal

Publications and source records attributed to A. A. Mahabal.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Now you see me, now you don't: Deep, long-lived obscuration events of white dwarfs by dust and debris from disintegrating planetesimals

Transiting dust and debris around white dwarfs provide a direct view of planetary disruption. We report six previously non-variable white dwarfs that underwent single, deep obscuration events, including ZTF~J2327+0019, which fully disappeared for more than a year. These discoveries raise the number of confirmed debris-transit white dwarfs to 20. In addition, the systematic search of negative alerts from the Zwicky Transient Facility (ZTF), followed by photometric and spectroscopic observations, also identified three hot ($T\approx 55000$--$92000$ K) irregular variables as candidate debris hosts. The six confirmed events last weeks to years, reach transit depths of 25--100%, and show no recurrence over the 8-yr ZTF baseline. They are therefore much deeper and longer lived than the recurring, minute-scale transits typical of previously known systems. The observed reddening is consistent with dust extinction, and high-speed photometry reveals minute-scale structure in several systems, indicating rapidly moving material close to the white dwarf. ZTF~J2327+0019 also shows a simultaneous WISE infrared brightening, the first observed coincidence of infrared brightening and optical obscuration in a white dwarf. Two of the six hosts, one DAZ and one DBZ, are strongly metal enriched, with accretion rates among the highest known for their spectral types and minimum accreted masses of $3.5\times 10^{19}$ and $2\times 10^{24}$ g. We interpret the one-off transit events as collisions between planetesimal remnants and pre-existing circumstellar debris that trigger collisional cascades: short-timescale variability traces dust-producing fragments crossing the star, while slower changes trace the build-up and clearing of an optically thick dusty structure. In contrast, ZTF~J0436+5728 shows a coherent 5.910-h period, consistent with a rocky body shedding material near the tidal-disruption radius.

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arXiv2025

Spectroscopic Classification of Extragalactic Transients from CRTS

The Catalina Real-time Transient Survey (CRTS) carried out a public survey for optical transients between 2007 and 2019, discovering more than 16,000 transient candidates. Here we present the spectra and highlight the results of the spectroscopic follow-up of CRTS extragalactic transients. As expected, we find that the bulk of these transients are normal supernovae. However, as we prioritised transients exhibiting unusual features or environments during our spectroscopic follow-up, we focus on the rarer types of transients. These objects include more than a dozen type-I superluminous supernovae and dozens of type-I and II supernovae that underwent circumstellar medium interactions. We highlight several specific supernovae, including a new analysis of SN 2008iy, a type-IIn which exhibited a bright pre-supernova outburst event similar to SN 2009ip and lasted more than 1800 days; CSS111225:140122+161705, a type-I supernova that showed an extreme 2.5 magnitude rebrightening event more than 200 days after its initial outburst; and SN 2009ny, a type-Ibn supernova that exhibited strong helium emission lines similar to SN 2002ao. We confirm our previous finding that numerous CRTS transients are associated with galaxies of extremely low luminosity. We discuss the difficulty in determining the origin of transients associated with outbursts in active galactic nuclei (AGN), tidal disruption events, and type-IIn supernovae. As an example, we present CSS150120:110008+385352, a CRTS transient similar to CSS100217:102913+404220 that occurred within a quiescent AGN and peaked at Mv = -23.6.

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arXiv2025

QZO: A Catalog of 5 Million Quasars from the Zwicky Transient Facility

Machine learning methods are well established in the classification of quasars (QSOs). However, the advent of light curve observations adds a great amount of complexity to the problem. Our goal is to use the Zwicky Transient Facility (ZTF) to create a catalog of QSOs. We process the ZTF DR20 light curves with a transformer artificial neural network and combine different surveys with extreme gradient boosting. Based on ZTF g-band and WISE observations, we find 4,849,574 objects classified as QSOs with confidence higher than 90%. We robustly classify objects fainter than the $5σ$ SNR limit at $g=20.8$ by requiring $g < n_\mathrm{obs} / 80 + 20.375$. For 33% of QZO objects, with available WISE data, we publish redshifts with estimated error $Δz/(1 + z) = 0.14$. We find that ZTF classification is superior to the Pan-STARRS static bands, and on par with WISE and Gaia measurements, but the light curves provide the most important features for QSO classification in the ZTF dataset. Using ZTF g-band data with at least 100 observational epochs per light curve, we obtain 97% F1 score for QSOs. We find that with 3 day median cadence, a survey time span of at least 900 days is required to achieve 90% QSO F1 score. However, one can obtain the same score with a survey time span of 1800 days and the median cadence prolonged to 12 days.

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arXiv2025

Eclipsing white dwarf from the Zwicky Transient Facility: II. Seven eclipsing double white dwarfs

In a systematic search for eclipsing white dwarfs using Zwicky transient facility (ZTF) data, we found seven eclipsing double white dwarfs with orbital periods ranging from 45 minutes to 3 hours. We collected high-speed light curves, archival multi-wavelength data, and optical spectra for all systems and determined the binary parameters for each of them. We show that six of the systems are low-mass, double helium-core white dwarf binaries, with the last one a carbon-oxygen -- helium core white dwarf binary. These binaries slowly spiral inwards due to gravitational wave energy losses and are expected to merge within 36Myr--1.2Gyr, and we predict that the shortest orbital period binary will show a measurable eclipse arrival time delay within a decade. The two longest systems show a delay in the arrival time of the secondary eclipse, which we attribute to a small eccentricity of $\approx 2\times10^{-3}$. This is the first time that a non-zero eccentricity is measured in a compact double white dwarf binary. We suggest that these systems emerged from the common envelope with this small eccentricity, and because of the relatively long orbital period, gravitational wave emission has not yet circularised the binaries. Finally, we predict that relativistic apsidal precession will result in a change in the delay of the secondary eclipse that is measurable within a decade.

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arXiv2024

PKS~J0805$-$0111: A Second Owens Valley Radio Observatory Blazar Showing Highly Significant Sinusoidal Radio Variability -- The Tip of the Iceberg

Owens Valley Radio Observatory (OVRO) observations of supermassive black hole binary (SMBHB) candidate PKS~2131$-$021 revealed, for the first time, six likely characteristics of the phenomenology exhibited by SMBHB in blazars, of which the most unexpected and critical is sinusoidal flux density variations. We have now identified a second blazar, PKS~J0805$-$0111, showing significant sinusoidal variations, with an observed period that translates to $1.422 \pm 0.005$ yr in the rest frame of the $z = 1.388$ object. We generate $10^6$ simulated light curves to reproduce the radio variability characteristics of PKS~J0805$-$0111, and show that the global probability, considering the \textit{look-elsewhere effect}, indicates that the observed periodicity can be attributed to the red noise tail of the power spectral density, with a $p_0$ value of $7.8 \times 10^{-5}$ (i.e. 3.78$σ$). PKS J0805$-$0111 displays all six characteristics observed in PKS 2131$-$021. Taking into account the well-defined OVRO sample size, the false positive probability $\sim 0.22$, but the rare behavior makes this a strong SMBHB candidate. The discovery of a second SMBHB candidate exhibiting these rare characteristics reveals that PKS~2131$-$021 is not a unique, isolated case. With these two strong cases we are clearly seeing only the tip of the iceberg. We estimate that the number of SMBHB candidates amongst blazars $\sim$ 1 in 100.

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arXiv2023

Four new eclipsing accreting ultracompact white dwarf binaries found with the Zwicky Transient Facility

Context. Accreting ultracompact binaries contain a white dwarf that is accreting from a degenerate object and have orbital periods shorter than 65 minutes. Aims. The aims of this letter are to report the discovery and the orbital period of four new eclipsing accreting ultracompact binaries found using the Zwicky Transient Facility, and to discuss their photometric properties. Methods. We searched through a list of 4171 dwarf novae compiled using the Zwicky Transient Facility and used the Box Least Square method to search for periodic signals in the data. Results. We found four new eclipsing accreting ultracompact binaries with orbital periods between 25.9-56 minutes, one of which is previously published as an AM CVn, while the other three systems are new discoveries. The other two shorter period systems are likely also AM CVn systems, while the longest period system with a period of 56 minutes shows multiple super-outbursts observed in two years which is more consistent with it being a Helium-CV.

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arXiv2023

The broad-lined Type-Ic supernova SN 2022xxf with extraordinary two-humped light curves

We report on our study of supernova (SN) 2022xxf based on observations obtained during the first four months of its evolution. The light curves (LCs) display two humps of similar maximum brightness separated by 75 days, unprecedented for a broad-lined (BL) Type Ic supernova (SN IcBL). SN 2022xxf is the most nearby SN IcBL to date (in NGC 3705, $z = 0.0037$, at a distance of about 20 Mpc). Optical and near-infrared photometry and spectroscopy are used to identify the energy source powering the LC. Nearly 50 epochs of high signal-to-noise-ratio spectroscopy were obtained within 130 days, comprising an unparalleled dataset for a SN IcBL, and one of the best-sampled SN datasets to date. The global spectral appearance and evolution of SN 2022xxf points to typical SN Ic/IcBL, with broad features (up to $\sim14000$ km s$^{-1}$) and a gradual transition from the photospheric to the nebular phase. However, narrow emission lines (corresponding to $\sim1000-2500$ km s$^{-1}$) are present in the spectra from the time of the second rise, suggesting slower-moving circumstellar material (CSM). These lines are subtle, in comparison to the typical strong narrow lines of CSM-interacting SNe, for example, Type IIn, Ibn, and Icn, but some are readily noticeable at late times such as in Mg I $λ$5170 and [O I] $λ$5577. Unusually, the near-infrared spectra show narrow line peaks in a number of features formed by ions of O and Mg. We infer the presence of CSM that is free of H and He. We propose that the radiative energy from the ejecta-CSM interaction is a plausible explanation for the second LC hump. This interaction scenario is supported by the color evolution, which progresses to the blue as the light curve evolves along the second hump, and the slow second rise and subsequent rapid LC drop. (Abstract abridged)

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arXiv2022

Applications of AI in Astronomy

We provide a brief, and inevitably incomplete overview of the use of Machine Learning (ML) and other AI methods in astronomy, astrophysics, and cosmology. Astronomy entered the big data era with the first digital sky surveys in the early 1990s and the resulting Terascale data sets, which required automating of many data processing and analysis tasks, for example the star-galaxy separation, with billions of feature vectors in hundreds of dimensions. The exponential data growth continued, with the rise of synoptic sky surveys and the Time Domain Astronomy, with the resulting Petascale data streams and the need for a real-time processing, classification, and decision making. A broad variety of classification and clustering methods have been applied for these tasks, and this remains a very active area of research. Over the past decade we have seen an exponential growth of the astronomical literature involving a variety of ML/AI applications of an ever increasing complexity and sophistication. ML and AI are now a standard part of the astronomical toolkit. As the data complexity continues to increase, we anticipate further advances leading towards a collaborative human-AI discovery.

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arXiv2022

PGIR 20eid (SN2020qmp): A Type IIP Supernova at 15.6 Mpc discovered by the Palomar Gattini-IR survey

We present a detailed analysis of SN 2020qmp, a nearby type IIP core-collapse supernova (CCSN), discovered by the Palomar Gattini-IR (PGIR) survey in the galaxy UGC07125. We illustrate how the multiwavelength study of this event helps our general understanding of stellar progenitors and circumstellar medium (CSM) interactions in CCSNe. We also highlight the importance of near-infrared (NIR) surveys for early detections of SNe in dusty environments. SN 2020qmp displays characteristic hydrogen lines in its optical spectra, as well as a plateau in its optical LC, hallmarks of a type IIP SN. We do not detect linear polarization during the plateau phase, with a 3 sigma upper limit of 0.78%. Through hydrodynamical LC modeling and an analysis of its nebular spectra, we estimate a progenitor mass of around 11 solar masses, and an explosion energy of around 0.8e51 erg. We find that the spectral energy distribution cannot be explained by a simple CSM interaction model, assuming a constant shock velocity and steady mass-loss rate, and the excess X-ray luminosity compared with the synchrotron radio luminosity suggests deviations from equipartition. Finally, we demonstrate the advantages of NIR surveys over optical surveys for the detection of dust-obscured CCSNe in the local universe. Specifically, our simulations show that the Wide-Field Infrared Transient Explorer will detect about 14 more CCSNe out of 75 expected in its footprint within 40 Mpc, over five years than an optical survey equivalent to the Zwicky Transient Facility would detect. We have determined or constrained the main properties of SN 2020qmp and of its progenitor, highlighting the value of multiwavelength follow-up observations of nearby CCSNe. We have also shown that forthcoming NIR surveys will finally enable us to do a nearly complete census of CCSNe in the local universe.

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arXiv2021

The Photometric LSST Astronomical Time-series Classification Challenge (PLAsTiCC): Selection of a performance metric for classification probabilities balancing diverse science goals

Classification of transient and variable light curves is an essential step in using astronomical observations to develop an understanding of their underlying physical processes. However, upcoming deep photometric surveys, including the Large Synoptic Survey Telescope (LSST), will produce a deluge of low signal-to-noise data for which traditional labeling procedures are inappropriate. Probabilistic classification is more appropriate for the data but are incompatible with the traditional metrics used on deterministic classifications. Furthermore, large survey collaborations intend to use these classification probabilities for diverse science objectives, indicating a need for a metric that balances a variety of goals. We describe the process used to develop an optimal performance metric for an open classification challenge that seeks probabilistic classifications and must serve many scientific interests. The Photometric LSST Astronomical Time-series Classification Challenge (PLAsTiCC) is an open competition aiming to identify promising techniques for obtaining classification probabilities of transient and variable objects by engaging a broader community both within and outside astronomy. Using mock classification probability submissions emulating archetypes of those anticipated of PLAsTiCC, we compare the sensitivity of metrics of classification probabilities under various weighting schemes, finding that they yield qualitatively consistent results. We choose as a metric for PLAsTiCC a weighted modification of the cross-entropy because it can be meaningfully interpreted. Finally, we propose extensions of our methodology to ever more complex challenge goals and suggest some guiding principles for approaching the choice of a metric of probabilistic classifications.

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arXiv2021

Gaia Photometric Science Alerts

Since July 2014, the Gaia mission has been engaged in a high-spatial-resolution, time-resolved, precise, accurate astrometric, and photometric survey of the entire sky. Aims: We present the Gaia Science Alerts project, which has been in operation since 1 June 2016. We describe the system which has been developed to enable the discovery and publication of transient photometric events as seen by Gaia. Methods: We outline the data handling, timings, and performances, and we describe the transient detection algorithms and filtering procedures needed to manage the high false alarm rate. We identify two classes of events: (1) sources which are new to Gaia and (2) Gaia sources which have undergone a significant brightening or fading. Validation of the Gaia transit astrometry and photometry was performed, followed by testing of the source environment to minimise contamination from Solar System objects, bright stars, and fainter near-neighbours. Results: We show that the Gaia Science Alerts project suffers from very low contamination, that is there are very few false-positives. We find that the external completeness for supernovae, $C_E=0.46$, is dominated by the Gaia scanning law and the requirement of detections from both fields-of-view. Where we have two or more scans the internal completeness is $C_I=0.79$ at 3 arcsec or larger from the centres of galaxies, but it drops closer in, especially within 1 arcsec. Conclusions: The per-transit photometry for Gaia transients is precise to 1 per cent at $G=13$, and 3 per cent at $G=19$. The per-transit astrometry is accurate to 55 milliarcseconds when compared to Gaia DR2. The Gaia Science Alerts project is one of the most homogeneous and productive transient surveys in operation, and it is the only survey which covers the whole sky at high spatial resolution (subarcsecond), including the Galactic plane and bulge.

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arXiv2020

Results of the Photometric LSST Astronomical Time-series Classification Challenge (PLAsTiCC)

Next-generation surveys like the Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) on the Vera C. Rubin Observatory will generate orders of magnitude more discoveries of transients and variable stars than previous surveys. To prepare for this data deluge, we developed the Photometric LSST Astronomical Time-series Classification Challenge (PLAsTiCC), a competition which aimed to catalyze the development of robust classifiers under LSST-like conditions of a non-representative training set for a large photometric test set of imbalanced classes. Over 1,000 teams participated in PLAsTiCC, which was hosted in the Kaggle data science competition platform between Sep 28, 2018 and Dec 17, 2018, ultimately identifying three winners in February 2019. Participants produced classifiers employing a diverse set of machine learning techniques including hybrid combinations and ensemble averages of a range of approaches, among them boosted decision trees, neural networks, and multi-layer perceptrons. The strong performance of the top three classifiers on Type Ia supernovae and kilonovae represent a major improvement over the current state-of-the-art within astronomy. This paper summarizes the most promising methods and evaluates their results in detail, highlighting future directions both for classifier development and simulation needs for a next generation PLAsTiCC data set.

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arXiv2020

ZTF Early Observations of Type Ia Supernovae II: First Light, the Initial Rise, and Time to Reach Maximum Brightness

While it is clear that Type Ia supernovae (SNe) are the result of thermonuclear explosions in C/O white dwarfs (WDs), a great deal remains uncertain about the binary companion that facilitates the explosive disruption of the WD. Here, we present a comprehensive analysis of a large, unique data set of 127 SNe$\,$Ia with exquisite coverage by the Zwicky Transient Facility (ZTF). High-cadence (six observations per night) ZTF observations allow us to measure the SN rise time and examine its initial evolution. We develop a Bayesian framework to model the early rise as a power law in time, which enables the inclusion of priors in our model. For a volume-limited subset of normal SNe$\,$Ia, we find that the mean power-law index is consistent with 2 in the $r_\mathrm{ZTF}$-band ($α_r = 2.01\pm0.02$), as expected in the expanding fireball model. There are, however, individual SNe that are clearly inconsistent with $α_r=2$. We estimate a mean rise time of 18.9$\,$d (with a range extending from $\sim$15 to 22$\,$d), though this is subject to the adopted prior. We identify an important, previously unknown, bias whereby the rise times for higher-redshift SNe within a flux-limited survey are systematically underestimated. This effect can be partially alleviated if the power-law index is fixed to $α=2$, in which case we estimate a mean rise time of 21.7$\,$d (with a range from $\sim$18 to 23$\,$d). The sample includes a handful of rare and peculiar SNe$\,$Ia. Finally, we conclude with a discussion of lessons learned from the ZTF sample that can eventually be applied to observations from the Vera C. Rubin Observatory.

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arXiv2020

Supernova SN 2020faa -- an iPTF14hls look-alike?

We present observations of SN 2020faa. This Type II supernova displays a luminous light curve that started to rebrighten from an initial decline. We investigate this in relation to the famous supernova iPTF14hls, which received a lot of attention and multiple interpretations in the literature, however whose nature and source of energy still remains unknown. We demonstrate the great similarity between SN 2020faa and iPTF14hls during the first 6 months, and use this comparison both to forecast the evolution of SN 2020faa and to reflect on the less well observed early evolution of iPTF14hls. We present and analyse our observational data, consisting mainly of optical light curves from the Zwicky Transient Facility in the gri bands as well as a sequence of optical spectra. We construct colour curves, a bolometric light curve, compare ejecta-velocity and Black-body radius evolutions for the two supernovae, as well as for more typical Type II supernovae. The light curves show a great similarity with those of iPTF14hls over the first 6 months, in luminosity, timescale and colours. Also the spectral evolution of SN 2020faa is that of a Type II supernova, although it probes earlier epochs than those available for iPTF14hls. The similar light curve behaviour is suggestive of SN 2020faa being a new iPTF14hls. We present these observations now to advocate follow-up observations, since most of the more striking evolution of supernova iPTF14hls came later, with light curve undulations and a spectacular longevity. On the other hand, for SN 2020faa we have better constraints on the explosion epoch than we had for iPTF14hls, and we have been able to spectroscopically monitor it from earlier phases than was done for the more famous sibling.

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arXiv2020

A new class of Roche lobe-filling hot subdwarf binaries

We present the discovery of the second binary with a Roche lobe-filling hot subdwarf transferring mass to a white dwarf (WD) companion. This 56 minute binary was discovered using data from the Zwicky Transient Facility. Spectroscopic observations reveal an He-sdOB star with an effective temperature of $T_{\rm eff}=33,700\pm1000$ K and a surface gravity of $log(g)=5.54\pm0.11$. The GTC+HiPERCAM light curve is dominated by the ellipsoidal deformation of the He-sdOB star and shows an eclipse of the He-sdOB by an accretion disk as well as a weak eclipse of the WD. We infer a He-sdOB mass of $M_{\rm sdOB}=0.41\pm0.04$ M$_\odot$ and a WD mass of $M_{\rm WD}=0.68\pm0.05$ M$_\odot$. The weak eclipses imply a WD black-body temperature of $63,000\pm10,000$ K and a radius $R_{\rm WD}=0.0148\pm0.0020$ M$_\odot$ as expected for a WD of such high temperature. The He-sdOB star is likely undergoing hydrogen shell burning and will continue transferring mass for $\approx1$ Myrs at a rate of $10^{-9} M_\odot {\rm yr}^{-1}$ which is consistent with the high WD temperature. The hot subdwarf will then turn into a WD and the system will merge in $\approx30$ Myrs. We suggest that Galactic reddening could bias discoveries towards preferentially finding Roche lobe-filling systems during the short-lived shell burning phase. Studies using reddening corrected samples should reveal a large population of helium core-burning hot subdwarfs with $T_{\rm eff}\approx25,000$ K in binaries of 60-90 minutes with WDs. Though not yet in contact, these binaries would eventually come into contact through gravitational wave emission and explode as a sub-luminous thermonuclear supernova or evolve into a massive single WD.

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arXiv2020

The Spectacular Ultraviolet Flash From the Peculiar Type Ia Supernova 2019yvq

Early observations of Type Ia supernovae (SNe$\,$Ia) provide essential clues for understanding the progenitor system that gave rise to the terminal thermonuclear explosion. We present exquisite observations of SN$\,$2019yvq, the second observed SN$\,$Ia, after iPTF$\,$14atg, to display an early flash of emission in the ultraviolet (UV) and optical. Our analysis finds that SN$\,$2019yvq was unusual, even when ignoring the initial flash, in that it was moderately underluminous for an SN$\,$Ia ($M_g \approx -18.5\,$mag at peak) yet featured very high absorption velocities ($v \approx 15,000\,\mathrm{km\,s}^{-1}$ for Si II $λ$6355 at peak). We find that many of the observational features of SN$\,$2019yvq, aside from the flash, can be explained if the explosive yield of radioactive $^{56}\mathrm{Ni}$ is relatively low (we measure $M_{^{56}\mathrm{Ni}} = 0.31 \pm 0.05\,M_\odot$) and it and other iron-group elements are concentrated in the innermost layers of the ejecta. To explain both the UV/optical flash and peak properties of SN$\,$2019yvq we consider four different models: interaction between the SN ejecta and a nondegenerate companion, extended clumps of $^{56}\mathrm{Ni}$ in the outer ejecta, a double-detonation explosion, and the violent merger of two white dwarfs. Each of these models has shortcomings when compared to the observations; it is clear additional tuning is required to better match SN$\,$2019yvq. In closing, we predict that the nebular spectra of SN$\,$2019yvq will feature either H or He emission, if the ejecta collided with a companion, strong [Ca II] emission, if it was a double detonation, or narrow [O I] emission, if it was due to a violent merger.

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arXiv2020

Candidate Electromagnetic Counterpart to the Binary Black Hole Merger Gravitational Wave Event S190521g

We report the first plausible optical electromagnetic (EM) counterpart to a (candidate) binary black hole (BBH) merger. Detected by the Zwicky Transient Facility (ZTF), the EM flare is consistent with expectations for a kicked BBH merger in the accretion disk of an active galactic nucleus (AGN), and is unlikely ($<O(0.01\%$)) due to intrinsic variability of this source. The lack of color evolution implies that it is not a supernovae and instead is strongly suggestive of a constant temperature shock. Other false-positive events, such as microlensing or a tidal disruption event, are ruled out or constrained to be $<O(0.1\%$). If the flare is associated with S190521g, we find plausible values of: total mass $ M_{\rm BBH} \sim 100 M_{\odot}$, kick velocity $v_k \sim 200\, {\rm km}\, {\rm s}^{-1}$ at $θ\sim 60^{\circ}$ in a disk with aspect ratio $H/a \sim 0.01$ (i.e., disk height $H$ at radius $a$) and gas density $ρ\sim 10^{-10}\, {\rm g}\, {\rm cm}^{-3}$. The merger could have occurred at a disk migration trap ($a \sim 700\, r_{g}$; $r_g \equiv G M_{\rm SMBH} / c^2$, where $M_{\rm SMBH}$ is the mass of the AGN supermassive black hole). The combination of parameters implies a significant spin for at least one of the black holes in S190521g. The timing of our spectroscopy prevents useful constraints on broad-line asymmetry due to an off-center flare. We predict a repeat flare in this source due to a re-encountering with the disk in $\sim 1.6\, {\rm yr}\, (M_{\rm SMBH}/10^{8}M_{\odot})\, (a/10^{3}r_{g})^{3/2}$.

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arXiv2019

Astro2020 Science White Paper: The Next Decade of Astroinformatics and Astrostatistics

Over the past century, major advances in astronomy and astrophysics have been largely driven by improvements in instrumentation and data collection. With the amassing of high quality data from new telescopes, and especially with the advent of deep and large astronomical surveys, it is becoming clear that future advances will also rely heavily on how those data are analyzed and interpreted. New methodologies derived from advances in statistics, computer science, and machine learning are beginning to be employed in sophisticated investigations that are not only bringing forth new discoveries, but are placing them on a solid footing. Progress in wide-field sky surveys, interferometric imaging, precision cosmology, exoplanet detection and characterization, and many subfields of stellar, Galactic and extragalactic astronomy, has resulted in complex data analysis challenges that must be solved to perform scientific inference. Research in astrostatistics and astroinformatics will be necessary to develop the state-of-the-art methodology needed in astronomy. Overcoming these challenges requires dedicated, interdisciplinary research. We recommend: (1) increasing funding for interdisciplinary projects in astrostatistics and astroinformatics; (2) dedicating space and time at conferences for interdisciplinary research and promotion; (3) developing sustainable funding for long-term astrostatisics appointments; and (4) funding infrastructure development for data archives and archive support, state-of-the-art algorithms, and efficient computing.

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