arXiv subjects

A. Connolly

Publications and source records attributed to A. Connolly.

At least 37 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

arXiv2026

Sensitivity of the As-Built Askaryan Radio Array to Ultra-High Energy Neutrinos

The Askaryan Radio Array (ARA) is an ultra-high energy (UHE) neutrino observatory designed to detect the impulsive radio waves produced by relativistic particle cascades in the Antarctic glacial ice. Using a significantly enhanced simulation pipeline, which adds data-driven detector simulations and fully incorporates secondary particle production, we calculate the trigger-level acceptance of the entire array. We compare the resulting trigger-level sensitivity to constraints on the UHE neutrino flux from other detectors. Given its exposure from 2013 to 2023, we find that ARA achieves a world-leading sensitivity above about $10^{19}$ eV, depending on the details of the event selection used in a search. Moreover, we find that up to 13 neutrinos are predicted to have been observed in this period at trigger-level, assuming the most optimistic neutrino flux models. We show that observations of secondary particles account for up to 30\% of the total acceptance starting at $10^{19}$ eV, and we explore the potential signatures and implications of both multi-pulse (from direct and refracted pulses and/or from secondary particle interactions) and multi-station events. Finally, we comment on the implications of this study for the design of next-generation UHE neutrino experiments, in particular IceCube-Gen2 Radio.

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arXiv2026

Neural posterior estimation of the neutrino direction in IceCube using transformer-encoded normalizing flows on the sphere

IceCube is a cubic-kilometer-scale neutrino detector located at the geographic South Pole. A precise directional reconstruction of IceCube neutrinos is vital for associations with astronomical objects. In this context, we discuss neural posterior estimation of the neutrino direction via a transformer encoder that maps to a normalizing flow on the 2-sphere. It achieves a new state-of-the-art angular resolution for the two main event morphologies in IceCube - tracks and showers - while being significantly faster than traditional B-spline-based likelihood reconstructions. All-sky scans can be performed within seconds rather than hours, and take constant computation time, regardless of whether the posterior extent is arc-minutes or spans the whole sky. We utilize a combination of $C^2$-smooth rational-quadratic splines, scale transformations and rotations to define a novel spherical normalizing-flow distribution whose parameters are predicted as a whole as the output of the transformer encoder. We test several structural choices diverting from the vanilla transformer architecture. In particular, we find dual residual streams, nonlinear QKV projection and a separate class token with its own cross-attention processing to boost test-time performance. The angular resolution for both showers and tracks improves substantially over the whole trained energy range from 100 GeV to 100 PeV. At 100 TeV deposited energy, for example, the median angular resolution improves by a factor of $1.3$ for throughgoing tracks, by a factor of $1.7$ for showers and by a factor of $2.5$ for starting tracks compared to state-of-the art likelihood reconstructions based on B-splines. While previous machine-learning (ML) efforts have managed to obtain competitive shower resolutions, this is the first time an ML-based method outperforms likelihood-based muon reconstructions above 100 GeV.

hep-ex↗

arXiv2026

Observation of In-ice Askaryan Radiation from High-Energy Cosmic Rays

We present the first experimental evidence for in-ice Askaryan radiation -- coherent charge-excess radio emission -- from high-energy particle cascades developing in the Antarctic ice sheet. In 208 days of data recorded with the phased-array instrument of the Askaryan Radio Array, a previous analysis has incidentally identified 13 events with impulsive radiofrequency signals originating from below the ice surface. We here present a detailed reanalysis of these events. The observed event rate, radiation arrival directions, signal shape, spectral content, and electric field polarization are consistent with in-ice Askaryan radiation from cosmic ray air shower cores impacting the ice sheet. For the brightest events, the angular radiation pattern favors an extended cascade-like emitter over a pointlike source. An origin from the geomagnetic separation of charges in cosmic ray air showers is disfavored by the arrival directions and polarization. Considering the arrival angles, timing properties, and the impulsive nature of the passing events, the event rate is inconsistent with the estimation of the combined background from thermal noise events and on-surface events at the level of $5.1\,σ$.

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arXiv2026

Improved measurements of the TeV-PeV extragalactic neutrino spectrum from joint analyses of IceCube tracks and cascades

The IceCube South Pole Neutrino Observatory has discovered the presence of a diffuse astrophysical neutrino flux at energies of TeV and beyond using neutrino induced muon tracks and cascade events from neutrino interactions. We present two analyses sensitive to neutrino events in the energy range \SI{1}{TeV} to \SI{10}{PeV}, using more than 10 years of IceCube data. Both analyses consistently reject a neutrino spectrum following a single power-law with significance $>4\,σ$ in favor of a broken power law. We describe the methods implemented in the two analyses, the spectral constraints obtained, and the validation of the robustness of the results. Additionally, we report the detection of a muon neutrino in the MESE sample with an energy of $11.4^{+2.46}_{-2.53} $\,\si{PeV}, the highest energy neutrino observed by IceCube to date. The results presented here show insights into the spectral shape of astrophysical neutrinos, which has important implications for inferring their production processes in a multi-messenger picture.

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arXiv2026

Modeling the refractive index profile n(z) of polar ice for ultra-high energy neutrino experiments

We have developed an in-situ index of refraction profile n(z) for cold polar ice, using the transit times of radio signals broadcast from an englacial transmitter to 2-5 km distant radio-frequency receivers, deployed at depths up to 200 m. For propagation through a non-uniform medium, Maxwell's equations generally admit two ray propagation solutions from a given transmitter, corresponding to a direct path (D) and a refracted or reflected path (R); the measured D vs. R timing differences (dt(D,R)) are determined by the refractive index profile. We constrain n(z) near South Pole, where the Askaryan Radio Array (ARA) neutrino observatory is located, by simulating D and R ray paths via ray tracing and comparing simulations to measured dt(D,R) values. Using previous ice density data as a proxy for n(z), we demonstrate that our data strongly favors a glaciologically-motivated three-phase densification model rather than a single exponential scale height model. Effective volume simulations for a detector of ARA station antenna depths yield a 14\% increase in neutrino sensitivity over a range of $10^{17} - 10^{21}$ eV using the three-phase model compared to a single exponential.

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arXiv2026

Evidence for a Spectral Break or Curvature in the Spectrum of Astrophysical Neutrinos from 5 TeV--10 PeV

We report improved measurements of the all flavor astrophysical neutrino spectrum with IceCube by combining complementary neutrino samples in two independent analyses. Both analyses show evidence of a harder spectrum at energies below $\sim$30~TeV compared to higher energies where the spectrum is well characterized by a power law. The spectrum is better described by a log parabola or a broken power law, the latter being the preferred model. Both, however, reject a single power law over an energy range 5~TeV-10~PeV with a significance $>4σ$, providing new constraints on properties of cosmic neutrino sources.

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arXiv2026

Evidence for Neutrino Emission from X-Ray-bright Active Galactic Nuclei with IceCube

Recently, IceCube reported neutrino emission from the Seyfert galaxy NGC 1068. Using 13.1 years of IceCube data, we present a follow-up search for neutrino sources in the northern sky. NGC 1068 remains the most significant neutrino source among 110 preselected gamma-ray emitters while also being spatially compatible with the most significant location in the northern sky. Its energy spectrum is characterized by an unbroken power-law with spectral index $γ= 3.4 \pm 0.2$. Consistent with previous results, the observed neutrino flux exceeds its gamma-ray counterpart by at least two orders of magnitude. Motivated by this disparity and the high X-ray luminosity of the source, we selected 47 X-ray bright Seyfert galaxies from the Swift/BAT spectroscopic survey that were not included in the list of gamma-ray emitters. When testing this collection for neutrino emission, we observe a 3.3$σ$ excess from an ensemble of 11 sources, with NGC 1068 excluded from the sample. Our results strengthen the evidence that X-ray bright cores of active galactic nuclei are neutrino emitters.

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arXiv2026

Probing neutrino emission at GeV energies from compact binary mergers with the IceCube Neutrino Observatory

The advent of multi-messenger astronomy has allowed for new types of source searches by neutrino detectors. We present the results of the search for 0.5-100 GeV astrophysical neutrinos detected with IceCube and emitted from compact binary mergers detected by the LIGO, Virgo, and KAGRA interferometers from their first run of observation (O1) to the end of the first part of the fourth (O4a). An innovative approach is used to lower the energy threshold to 0.5 GeV and to search for an excess of GeV neutrinos in time coincidence with astrophysical transient events. Furthermore, we use a statistical combination of all observations, a binomial test, to search for a subpopulation of neutrino emitters. No significant excess was found from the studied mergers, with a best post-trial $p$-value of $40\%$, and there is currently no hint of a population of GeV neutrino emitters found in the IceCube data (post-trial $p$-value = $81\%$).

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arXiv2026

Deep Search for Joint Sources of Gravitational Waves and High-Energy Neutrinos with IceCube During the Third Observing Run of LIGO and Virgo

The discovery of joint sources of high-energy neutrinos and gravitational waves has been a primary target for the LIGO, Virgo, KAGRA, and IceCube observatories. The joint detection of high-energy neutrinos and gravitational waves would provide insight into cosmic processes, from the dynamics of compact object mergers and stellar collapses to the mechanisms driving relativistic outflows. The joint detection of multiple cosmic messengers can also elevate the significance of the common observation even when some or all of the constituent messengers are sub-threshold, i.e. not significant enough to declare their detection individually. Using data from the LIGO, Virgo, and IceCube observatories, including sub-threshold events, we searched for common sources of gravitational waves and high-energy neutrinos during the third observing run of Advanced LIGO and Advanced Virgo detectors. Our search did not identify significant joint sources. We derive constraints on the rate densities of joint sources. Our results constrain the isotropic neutrino emission from gravitational-wave sources for very high values of the total energy emitted in neutrinos (> $10^{52} - 10^{54}$ erg).

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arXiv2026

Identification and Denoising of Radio Signals from Cosmic-Ray Air Showers using Convolutional Neural Networks

Radio pulses generated by cosmic-ray air showers can be used to reconstruct key properties like the energy and depth of the electromagnetic component of cosmic-ray air showers. Radio detection threshold, influenced by natural and anthropogenic radio background, can be reduced through various techniques. In this work, we demonstrate that convolutional neural networks (CNNs) are an effective way to lower the threshold. We developed two CNNs: a classifier to distinguish radio signal waveforms from background noise and a denoiser to clean contaminated radio signals. Following the training and testing phases, we applied the networks to air-shower data triggered by scintillation detectors of the prototype station for the enhancement of IceTop, IceCube's surface array at the South Pole. Over a four-month period, we identified 554 cosmic-ray events in coincidence with IceTop, approximately five times more compared to a reference method based on a cut on the signal-to-noise ratio. Comparisons with IceTop measurements of the same air showers confirmed that the CNNs reliably identified cosmic-ray radio pulses and outperformed the reference method. Additionally, we find that CNNs reduce the false-positive rate of air-shower candidates and effectively denoise radio waveforms, thereby improving the accuracy of the power and arrival time reconstruction of radio pulses.

hep-ex↗

arXiv2025

Constraining the Prompt Atmospheric Neutrino Flux Combining IceCube's Cascade and Track Samples

The IceCube Neutrino Observatory has observed a diffuse flux of high-energy astrophysical neutrinos for more than a decade. A relevant background to the astrophysical flux is prompt atmospheric neutrinos, originating from the decay of charmed mesons produced in cosmic-ray-induced air showers. The production rate of charmed mesons in the very forward phase space of hadronic interactions, and consequently, the prompt neutrino flux, remains uncertain and has not yet been observed by neutrino detectors. An accurate measurement of this flux would enhance our understanding of fundamental particle physics such as hadronic interactions in high-energy cosmic-ray-induced air showers and the nucleon structure. Furthermore, an experimental characterization of this background flux will improve the precision of astrophysical neutrino flux spectral measurements. In this work, we perform a combined fit of cascade-like and track-like neutrino events in IceCube to constrain the prompt atmospheric neutrino flux. Given that the prompt flux is a sub-dominant contribution, treating systematic uncertainties arising from the potential mis-modeling of the conventional and astrophysical neutrino fluxes is critical for its measurement. Our analysis yields a non-zero best-fit result, which is, however, consistent with the null hypothesis of no prompt flux within one standard deviation. Consequently, we establish an upper bound on the flux at $4\times 10^{-16}$ (GeV m$^2$ s sr)$^{-1}$ at 10 TeV.

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arXiv2025

Seasonal Variations of the Atmospheric Muon Neutrino Spectrum measured with IceCube

This study presents an energy-dependent analysis of seasonal variations in the atmospheric muon neutrino spectrum, using 11.3 years of data from the IceCube Neutrino Observatory. By leveraging a novel spectral unfolding method, we explore the energy range from 125 GeV to 10 TeV for zenith angles between 90° to 110°, corresponding to the Antarctic atmosphere. Our findings reveal that the seasonal variation amplitude decreases with energy reaching ($-4.6 \pm 1.1$)\% during Austral winter and increases ($+3.9 \pm 1.2$)\% during Austral summer relative to the annual average at 10TeV. While the unfolded flux exceeds the model predictions by up to 30\%, the differential measurement of seasonal variations remains unaffected. The measured seasonal variations of the muon neutrino spectrum are consistent with theoretical predictions using the MCEq code and the NRLMSISE-00 atmospheric model.

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arXiv2025

Limits on GeV-scale WIMP Annihilation in Dwarf Spheroidals with IceCube DeepCore

Dark matter is approximately five times more abundant than baryonic matter in the universe, but its physical nature continues to elude physicists. One potential candidate for dark matter is a weakly-interacting massive particle (WIMP), which is predicted by various extensions to the Standard Model (SM) of particle physics. After becoming gravitationally bound in cosmic structures, WIMPs can self-annihilate and produce SM particles including neutrinos, which are observable by detectors like IceCube. We present a search for neutrinos from low-mass $(\leq 300 \, \mathrm{GeV})$ WIMP annihilation in dwarf spheroidal galaxies with over seven years of IceCube livetime. We find no statistically significant evidence of neutrinos produced by WIMP annihilation, and therefore set upper limits on the velocity-averaged annihilation cross section $\left<σv\right>$. Our strongest upper limits at the 90\% confidence level are $\mathcal{O}\!\left(10^{-22} \, \mathrm{{cm}^{3} \, s^{-1}}\right)$ for WIMP annihilation directly into neutrino-antineutrino pairs. For our least sensitive channel, the corresponding limits are $\mathcal{O}\!\left(10^{-20} \, \mathrm{{cm}^{3} \, s^{-1}}\right)$, which is an improvement of over two orders of magnitude over previous IceCube limits from dwarf galaxies at the upper end of our mass range.

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arXiv2025

Characterization of the Three-Flavor Composition of Cosmic Neutrinos with IceCube

Neutrinos oscillate over cosmic distances. Using 11.4 years of IceCube data, the flavor composition of the all-sky neutrino flux from 5\,TeV--10\,PeV is studied. We report the first measurement down to the $\mathcal{O}$(TeV) scale using events classified into three flavor-dependent morphologies. The best fit flavor ratio is $f_e:f_μ:f_τ\,=\,0.30:0.37:0.33$, consistent with the standard three-flavor neutrino oscillation model. Each fraction is constrained to be $>0$ at $>$ 90\% confidence level, assuming a broken power law for cosmic neutrinos. We infer the flavor composition of cosmic neutrinos at their sources, and find production via neutron decay lies outside the 99\% confidence interval.

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arXiv2025

Constraints on the Correlation of IceCube Neutrinos with Tracers of Large-Scale Structure

The IceCube Neutrino Observatory has observed extragalactic astrophysical neutrinos with an apparently isotropic distribution. Only a small fraction of the observed astrophysical neutrinos can be explained by known sources. Neutrino production is thought to occur in energetic environments that are ultimately powered by the gravitational collapse of dense regions of the large-scale mass distribution in the universe. Whatever their identity, neutrino sources likely trace this large-scale mass distribution. The clustering of neutrinos with a tracer of the large-scale structure may provide insight into the distribution of neutrino sources with respect to redshift and the identity of neutrino sources. We implement a two-point angular cross-correlation of the Northern sky track events with an infrared galaxy catalog derived from WISE and 2MASS source catalogs that trace the nearby large-scale structure. No statistically significant correlation is found between the neutrinos and this infrared galaxy catalog. We find that < ~54% of the diffuse muon neutrino flux can be attributed to sources correlated with the galaxy catalog with 90% confidence. Additionally, when assuming that the neutrino source comoving density evolves following a power-law in redshift, $dN_s/dV \propto (1+z)^{k}$, we find that sources with negative evolution, in particular k < -1.75, are disfavored at the 90% confidence level

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arXiv2025

Measurement of the mean number of muons with energies above 500 GeV in air showers detected with the IceCube Neutrino Observatory

We present a measurement of the mean number of muons with energies larger than 500 GeV in near-vertical extensive air showers initiated by cosmic rays with primary energies between 2.5 PeV and 100 PeV. The measurement is based on events detected in coincidence between the surface and in-ice detectors of the IceCube Neutrino Observatory. Air showers are recorded on the surface by IceTop, while a bundle of high-energy muons ("TeV muons") from the shower can subsequently produce a track-like event in the IceCube in-ice array. Results are obtained assuming the hadronic interaction models Sibyll 2.1, QGSJet-II.04, and EPOS-LHC. The measured number of TeV muons is found to be in agreement with predictions from air-shower simulations. The results have also been compared to a measurement of low-energy muons by IceTop, indicating an inconsistency between the predictions for low- and high-energy muons in simulations based on the EPOS-LHC model.

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arXiv2025

All-sky neutrino point-source search with IceCube combined track and cascade data

Despite extensive efforts, discovery of high-energy astrophysical neutrino sources remains elusive. We present an event-level simultaneous maximum likelihood analysis of tracks and cascades using IceCube data collected from 04/06/2008 to 05/23/2022 to search the whole sky for neutrino sources and, using a source catalog, for coincidence of neutrino emission with gamma-ray emission. This is the first time a simultaneous fit of different detection channels is used to conduct a time-integrated all-sky scan with IceCube. Combining all-sky tracks, with superior pointing-power and sensitivity in the northern sky, with all-sky cascades, with good energy-resolution and sensitivity in the southern sky, we have developed the most sensitive point-source search to date by IceCube which targets the entire sky. The most significant point in the northern sky aligns with NGC 1068, a Seyfert II galaxy, which, from the catalog search, shows a 3.5$σ$ excess over background after accounting for trials. The most significant point in the southern sky does not align with any source in the catalog and is not significant after accounting for trials. A search for the single most significant Gaussian flare at the locations of NGC 1068, PKS 1424+240, and the southern highest significance point shows results consistent with expectations for steady emission. Notably, this is the first time that a flare shorter than four years has been excluded as being responsible for NGC 1068's emergence as a neutrino source. Our results show that combining tracks and cascades when conducting neutrino source searches improves sensitivity and can lead to new discoveries.

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arXiv2025

Photometric Redshift Estimation for Rubin Observatory Data Preview 1 with Redshift Assessment Infrastructure Layers (RAIL)

We present the first systematic analysis of photometric redshifts (photo-z) estimated from the Rubin Observatory Data Preview 1 (DP1) data taken with the Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) Commissioning Camera. Employing the Redshift Assessment Infrastructure Layers (RAIL) framework, we apply eight photo-z algorithms to the DP1 photometry, using deep ugrizy coverage in the Extended Chandra Deep Field South (ECDFS) field and griz data in the Rubin_SV_38_7 field. In the ECDFS field, we construct a reference catalog from spectroscopic redshift (spec-z), grism redshift (grism-z), and multiband photo-z for training and validating photo-z. Performance metrics of the photo-z are evaluated using spec-zs from ECDFS and Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument Data Release 1 samples. Across the algorithms, we achieve per-galaxy photo-z scatter of $σ_{\rm NMAD} \sim 0.03$ and outlier fractions around 10% in the 6-band data, with performance degrading at faint magnitudes and z>1.2. The overall bias and scatter of our machine-learning based photo-zs satisfy the LSST Y1 requirement. We also use our photo-z to infer the ensemble redshift distribution n(z). We study the photo-z improvement by including near-infrared photometry from the Euclid mission, and find that Euclid photometry improves photo-z at z>1.2. Our results validate the RAIL pipeline for Rubin photo-z production and demonstrate promising initial performance.

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