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A. F. Heavens

Publications and source records attributed to A. F. Heavens.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

Almanac: MCMC-based signal extraction of power spectra and maps on the sphere

Inference in cosmology often starts with noisy observations of random fields on the celestial sphere, such as maps of the microwave background radiation, continuous maps of cosmic structure in different wavelengths, or maps of point tracers of the cosmological fields. Almanac uses Hamiltonian Monte Carlo sampling to infer the underlying all-sky noiseless maps of cosmic structures, in multiple redshift bins, together with their auto- and cross-power spectra. It can sample many millions of parameters, handling the highly variable signal-to-noise of typical cosmological signals, and it provides science-ready posterior data products. In the case of spin-weight 2 fields, Almanac infers $E$- and $B$-mode power spectra and parity-violating $EB$ power, and, by sampling the full posteriors rather than point estimates, it avoids the problem of $EB$-leakage. For theories with no $B$-mode signal, inferred non-zero $B$-mode power may be a useful diagnostic of systematic errors or an indication of new physics. Almanac's aim is to characterise the statistical properties of the maps, with outputs that are completely independent of the cosmological model, beyond an assumption of statistical isotropy. Inference of parameters of any particular cosmological model follows in a separate analysis stage. We demonstrate our signal extraction on a CMB-like experiment.

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Almanac: Weak Lensing power spectra and map inference on the masked sphere

We present a field-based signal extraction of weak lensing from noisy observations on the curved and masked sky. We test the analysis on a simulated Euclid-like survey, using a Euclid-like mask and noise level. To make optimal use of the information available in such a galaxy survey, we present a Bayesian method for inferring the angular power spectra of the weak lensing fields, together with an inference of the noise-cleaned tomographic weak lensing shear and convergence (projected mass) maps. The latter can be used for field-level inference with the aim of extracting cosmological parameter information including non-gaussianity of cosmic fields. We jointly infer all-sky $E$-mode and $B$-mode tomographic auto- and cross-power spectra from the masked sky, and potentially parity-violating $EB$-mode power spectra, up to a maximum multipole of $\ell_{\rm max}=2048$. We use Hamiltonian Monte Carlo sampling, inferring simultaneously the power spectra and denoised maps with a total of $\sim 16.8$ million free parameters. The main output and natural outcome is the set of samples of the posterior, which does not suffer from leakage of power from $E$ to $B$ unless reduced to point estimates. However, such point estimates of the power spectra, the mean and most likely maps, and their variances and covariances, can be computed if desired.

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The Pan-STARRS1 Surveys

Pan-STARRS1 has carried out a set of distinct synoptic imaging sky surveys including the $3π$ Steradian Survey and the Medium Deep Survey in 5 bands ($grizy_{P1}$). The mean 5$σ$ point source limiting sensitivities in the stacked 3$π$ Steradian Survey in $grizy_{P1}$ are (23.3, 23.2, 23.1, 22.3, 21.4) respectively. The upper bound on the systematic uncertainty in the photometric calibration across the sky is 7-12 millimag depending on the bandpass. The systematic uncertainty of the astrometric calibration using the Gaia frame comes from a comparison of the results with Gaia: the standard deviation of the mean and median residuals ($ Δra, Δdec $) are (2.3, 1.7) milliarcsec, and (3.1, 4.8) milliarcsec respectively. The Pan-STARRS system and the design of the PS1 surveys are described and an overview of the resulting image and catalog data products and their basic characteristics are described together with a summary of important results. The images, reduced data products, and derived data products from the Pan-STARRS1 surveys are available to the community from the Mikulski Archive for Space Telescopes (MAST) at STScI.

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Unequal-Time Correlators for Cosmology

Measurements of the power spectrum from large-scale structure surveys have to date assumed an equal-time approximation, where the full cross-correlation power spectrum of the matter density field evaluated at different times (or distances) has been approximated either by the power spectrum at a fixed time, or in an improved fashion, by a geometric mean $P(k; r_1, r_2)=[P(k; r_1) P(k; r_2)]^{1/2}$. In this paper we investigate the expected impact of the geometric mean ansatz, and present an application in assessing the impact on weak gravitational lensing cosmological parameter inference, using a perturbative unequal-time correlator. As one might expect, we find that the impact of this assumption is greatest at large separations in redshift $Δz > 0.3$ where the change in the amplitude of the matter power spectrum can be as much as $10$ percent for $k > 5h$Mpc$^{-1}$. However, of more concern is that the corrections for small separations, where the clustering is not close to zero, may not be negligibly small. In particular, we find that for a Euclid- or LSST-like weak lensing experiment the assumption of equal-time correlators may result in biased predictions of the cosmic shear power spectrum, and that the impact is strongly dependent on the amplitude of the intrinsic alignment signal. To compute unequal-time correlations to sufficient accuracy will require advances in either perturbation theory to high $k$-modes, or extensive use of simulations.

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3D Weak Gravitational Lensing of the CMB and Galaxies

In this paper we present a power spectrum formalism that combines the full three-dimensional information from the galaxy ellipticity field, with information from the cosmic microwave background (CMB). We include in this approach galaxy cosmic shear and galaxy intrinsic alignments, CMB deflection, CMB temperature and CMB polarisation data; including the inter-datum power spectra between all quantities. We apply this to forecasting cosmological parameter errors for CMB and imaging surveys for Euclid-like, Planck, ACTPoL, and CoRE-like experiments. We show that the additional covariance between the CMB and ellipticity measurements can improve dark energy equation of state measurements by 15%, and the combination of cosmic shear and the CMB, from Euclid-like and CoRE-like experiments, could in principle measure the sum of neutrino masses with an error of 0.003 eV.

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3D Cosmic Shear: Cosmology from CFHTLenS

This paper presents the first application of 3D cosmic shear to a wide-field weak lensing survey. 3D cosmic shear is a technique that analyses weak lensing in three dimensions using a spherical harmonic approach, and does not bin data in the redshift direction. This is applied to CFHTLenS, a 154 square degree imaging survey with a median redshift of 0.7 and an effective number density of 11 galaxies per square arcminute usable for weak lensing. To account for survey masks we apply a 3D pseudo-Cl approach on weak lensing data, and to avoid uncertainties in the highly non-linear regime, we separately analyse radial wave numbers k<=1.5h/Mpc and k<=5.0h/Mpc, and angular wavenumbers l~400-5000. We show how one can recover 2D and tomographic power spectra from the full 3D cosmic shear power spectra and present a measurement of the 2D cosmic shear power spectrum, and measurements of a set of 2-bin and 6-bin cosmic shear tomographic power spectra; in doing so we find that using the 3D power in the calculation of such 2D and tomographic power spectra from data naturally accounts for a minimum scale in the matter power spectrum. We use 3D cosmic shear to constrain cosmologies with parameters OmegaM, OmegaB, sigma8, h, ns, w0, wa. For a non-evolving dark energy equation of state, and assuming a flat cosmology, lensing combined with WMAP7 results in h=0.78+/-0.12, OmegaM=0.252+/-0.079, sigma8=0.88+/-0.23 and w=-1.16+/-0.38 using only scales k<=1.5h/Mpc. We also present results of lensing combined with first year Planck results, where we find no tension with the results from this analysis, but we also find no significant improvement over the Planck results alone. We find evidence of a suppression of power compared to LCDM on small scales 1.5 < k < 5.0 h/Mpc in the lensing data, which is consistent with predictions of the effect of baryonic feedback on the matter power spectrum.

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Generalised Fisher Matrices

The Fisher Information Matrix formalism is extended to cases where the data is divided into two parts (X,Y), where the expectation value of Y depends on X according to some theoretical model, and X and Y both have errors with arbitrary covariance. In the simplest case, (X,Y) represent data pairs of abscissa and ordinate, in which case the analysis deals with the case of data pairs with errors in both coordinates, but X can be any measured quantities on which Y depends. The analysis applies for arbitrary covariance, provided all errors are gaussian, and provided the errors in X are small, both in comparison with the scale over which the expected signal Y changes, and with the width of the prior distribution. This generalises the Fisher Matrix approach, which normally only considers errors in the `ordinate' Y. In this work, we include errors in X by marginalising over latent variables, effectively employing a Bayesian hierarchical model, and deriving the Fisher Matrix for this more general case. The methods here also extend to likelihood surfaces which are not gaussian in the parameter space, and so techniques such as DALI (Derivative Approximation for Likelihoods) can be generalised straightforwardly to include arbitrary gaussian data error covariances. For simple mock data and theoretical models, we compare to Markov Chain Monte Carlo experiments, illustrating the method with cosmological supernova data. We also include the new method in the Fisher4Cast software.

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Probing the accelerating Universe with radio weak lensing in the JVLA Sky Survey

We outline the prospects for performing pioneering radio weak gravitational lensing analyses using observations from a potential forthcoming JVLA Sky Survey program. A large-scale survey with the JVLA can offer interesting and unique opportunities for performing weak lensing studies in the radio band, a field which has until now been the preserve of optical telescopes. In particular, the JVLA has the capacity for large, deep radio surveys with relatively high angular resolution, which are the key characteristics required for a successful weak lensing study. We highlight the potential advantages and unique aspects of performing weak lensing in the radio band. In particular, the inclusion of continuum polarisation information can greatly reduce noise in weak lensing reconstructions and can also remove the effects of intrinsic galaxy alignments, the key astrophysical systematic effect that limits weak lensing at all wavelengths. We identify a VLASS "deep fields" program (total area ~10-20 square degs), to be conducted at L-band and with high-resolution (A-array configuration), as the optimal survey strategy from the point of view of weak lensing science. Such a survey will build on the unique strengths of the JVLA and will remain unsurpassed in terms of its combination of resolution and sensitivity until the advent of the Square Kilometre Array. We identify the best fields on the JVLA-accessible sky from the point of view of overlapping with existing deep optical and near infra-red data which will provide crucial redshift information and facilitate a host of additional compelling multi-wavelength science.

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Simulating the Effect of Non-Linear Mode-Coupling in Cosmological Parameter Estimation

Fisher Information Matrix methods are commonly used in cosmology to estimate the accuracy that cosmological parameters can be measured with a given experiment, and to optimise the design of experiments. However, the standard approach usually assumes both data and parameter estimates are Gaussian-distributed. Further, for survey forecasts and optimisation it is usually assumed the power-spectra covariance matrix is diagonal in Fourier-space. But in the low-redshift Universe, non-linear mode-coupling will tend to correlate small-scale power, moving information from lower to higher-order moments of the field. This movement of information will change the predictions of cosmological parameter accuracy. In this paper we quantify this loss of information by comparing naive Gaussian Fisher matrix forecasts with a Maximum Likelihood parameter estimation analysis of a suite of mock weak lensing catalogues derived from N-body simulations, based on the SUNGLASS pipeline, for a 2-D and tomographic shear analysis of a Euclid-like survey. In both cases we find that the 68% confidence area of the Omega_m-sigma_8 plane increases by a factor 5. However, the marginal errors increase by just 20 to 40%. We propose a new method to model the effects of nonlinear shear-power mode-coupling in the Fisher Matrix by approximating the shear-power distribution as a multivariate Gaussian with a covariance matrix derived from the mock weak lensing survey. We find that this approximation can reproduce the 68% confidence regions of the full Maximum Likelihood analysis in the Omega_m-sigma_8 plane to high accuracy for both 2-D and tomographic weak lensing surveys. Finally, we perform a multi-parameter analysis of Omega_m, sigma_8, h, n_s, w_0 and w_a to compare the Gaussian and non-linear mode-coupled Fisher matrix contours. (Abridged)

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3D Photometric Cosmic Shear

Here we present a number of improvements to weak lensing 3D power spectrum analysis, 3D cosmic shear, that uses the shape and redshift information of every galaxy to constrain cosmological parameters. We show how photometric redshift probability distributions for individual galaxies can be directly included in this statistic with no averaging. We also include the Limber approximation, considerably simplifying full 3D cosmic shear analysis, and we investigate its range of applicability. Finally we show the relationship between weak lensing tomography and the 3D cosmic shear field itself; the steps connecting them being the Limber approximation, a harmonic-space transform and a discretisation in wavenumber. Each method has its advantages: 3D cosmic shear analysis allows straightforward inclusion of all relevant modes, thus ensuring minimum error bars, and direct control of the range of physical wavenumbers probed, to avoid the uncertain highly nonlinear regime. On the other hand, tomography is more convenient for checking systematics through direct investigation of the redshift dependence of the signal. Finally, for tomography, we suggest that the angular modes probed should be redshift-dependent, to recover some of the 3D advantages.

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Reducing sample variance: halo biasing, non-linearity and stochasticity

Comparing clustering of differently biased tracers of the dark matter distribution offers the opportunity to reduce the cosmic variance error in the measurement of certain cosmological parameters. We develop a formalism that includes bias non-linearities and stochasticity. Our formalism is general enough that can be used to optimise survey design and tracers selection and optimally split (or combine) tracers to minimise the error on the cosmologically interesting quantities. Our approach generalises the one presented by McDonald & Seljak (2009) of circumventing sample variance in the measurement of $f\equiv d \ln D/d\ln a$. We analyse how the bias, the noise, the non-linearity and stochasticity affect the measurements of $Df$ and explore in which signal-to-noise regime it is significantly advantageous to split a galaxy sample in two differently-biased tracers. We use N-body simulations to find realistic values for the parameters describing the bias properties of dark matter haloes of different masses and their number density. We find that, even if dark matter haloes could be used as tracers and selected in an idealised way, for realistic haloes, the sample variance limit can be reduced only by up to a factor $σ_{2tr}/σ_{1tr}\simeq 0.6$. This would still correspond to the gain from a three times larger survey volume if the two tracers were not to be split. Before any practical application one should bear in mind that these findings apply to dark matter haloes as tracers, while realistic surveys would select galaxies: the galaxy-host halo relation is likely to introduce extra stochasticity, which may reduce the gain further.

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SUNGLASS: A new weak lensing simulation pipeline

A new cosmic shear analysis pipeline SUNGLASS (Simulated UNiverses for Gravitational Lensing Analysis and Shear Surveys) is introduced. SUNGLASS is a pipeline that rapidly generates simulated universes for weak lensing and cosmic shear analysis. The pipeline forms suites of cosmological N-body simulations and performs tomographic cosmic shear analysis using line-of-sight integration through these simulations while saving the particle lightcone information. Galaxy shear and convergence catalogues with realistic 3D galaxy redshift distributions are produced for the purposes of testing weak lensing analysis techniques and generating covariance matrices for data analysis and cosmological parameter estimation. We present a suite of fast medium resolution simulations with shear and convergence maps for a generic 100 square degree survey out to a redshift of z = 1.5, with angular power spectra agreeing with the theory to better than a few percent accuracy up to l = 10^3 for all source redshifts up to z = 1.5 and wavenumbers up to l = 2000 for the source redshifts z > 1.1. At higher wavenumbers, there is a failure of the theoretical lensing power spectrum reflecting the known discrepancy of the Smith et al. (2003) fitting formula at high physical wavenumbers. A two-parameter Gaussian likelihood analysis of sigma_8 and Omega_m is also performed on the suite of simulations, demonstrating that the cosmological parameters are recovered from the simulations and the covariance matrices are stable for data analysis. We find no significant bias in the parameter estimation at the level of ~ 0.02. The SUNGLASS pipeline should be an invaluable tool in weak lensing analysis.

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Loss of star forming gas in SDSS galaxies

Using the star formation rates from the SDSS galaxy sample, extracted using the MOPED algorithm, and the empirical Kennicutt law relating star formation rate to gas density, we calculate the time evolution of the gas fraction as a function of the present stellar mass. We show how the gas-to-stars ratio varies with stellar mass, finding good agreement with previous results for smaller samples at the present epoch. For the first time we show clear evidence for progressive gas loss with cosmic epoch, especially in low-mass systems. We find that galaxies with small stellar masses have lost almost all of their cold baryons over time, whereas the most massive galaxies have lost little. Our results also show that the most massive galaxies have evolved faster and turned most of their gas into stars at an early time, thus strongly supporting a downsizing scenario for galaxy evolution.

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Bayesian Galaxy Shape Measurement for Weak Lensing Surveys -II. Application to Simulations

We extend the Bayesian model fitting shape measurement method presented in Miller et al. (2007) and use the method to estimate the shear from the Shear TEsting Programme simulations (STEP). The method uses a fast model fitting algorithm which uses realistic galaxy profiles and analytically marginalises over the position and amplitude of the model by doing the model fitting in Fourier space. This is used to find the full posterior probability in ellipticity so that the shear can be estimated in a fully Bayesian way. The Bayesian shear estimation allows measurement bias arising from the presence of random noise to be removed. In this paper we introduce an iterative algorithm that can be used to estimate the intrinsic ellipticity prior and show that this is accurate and stable. By using the method to estimate the shear from the STEP1 simulations we find the method to have a shear bias of m ~ 0.005 and a variation in shear offset with PSF type of sigma_c ~ 0.0002. These values are smaller than for any method presented in the STEP1 publication that behaves linearly with shear. Using the method to estimate the shear from the STEP2 simulations we find than the shear bias and offset are m ~ 0.002 and c ~ -0.0007 respectively. In addition we find that the bias and offset are stable to changes in magnitude and size of the galaxies. Such biases should yield any cosmological constraints from future weak lensing surveys robust to systematic effects in shape measurement.

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Finding Evidence for Massive Neutrinos using 3D Weak Lensing

In this paper we investigate the potential of 3D cosmic shear to constrain massive neutrino parameters. We find that if the total mass is substantial (near the upper limits from LSS, but setting aside the Ly alpha limit for now), then 3D cosmic shear + Planck is very sensitive to neutrino mass and one may expect that a next generation photometric redshift survey could constrain the number of neutrinos N_nu and the sum of their masses m_nu to an accuracy of dN_nu ~ 0.08 and dm_nu ~ 0.03 eV respectively. If in fact the masses are close to zero, then the errors weaken to dN_nu ~ 0.10 and dm_nu~0.07 eV. In either case there is a factor 4 improvement over Planck alone. We use a Bayesian evidence method to predict joint expected evidence for N_nu and m_nu. We find that 3D cosmic shear combined with a Planck prior could provide `substantial' evidence for massive neutrinos and be able to distinguish `decisively' between many competing massive neutrino models. This technique should `decisively' distinguish between models in which there are no massive neutrinos and models in which there are massive neutrinos with |N_nu-3| > 0.35 and m_nu > 0.25 eV. We introduce the notion of marginalised and conditional evidence when considering evidence for individual parameter values within a multi-parameter model.

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Systematic effects on dark energy from 3D weak shear

We present an investigation into the potential effect of systematics inherent in multi-band wide field surveys on the dark energy equation of state determination for two 3D weak lensing methods. The weak lensing methods are a geometric shear-ratio method and 3D cosmic shear. The analysis here uses an extension of the Fisher matrix framework to jointly include photometric redshift systematics, shear distortion systematics and intrinsic alignments. We present results for DUNE and Pan-STARRS surveys. We show that assuming systematic parameters are fixed, but possibly biased, results in potentially large biases in dark energy parameters. We quantify any potential bias by defining a Bias Figure of Merit. We also show the effect on the dark energy Figure of Merit of marginalising over each systematic parameter individually. We find that the largest effect on the Figure of Merit comes from uncertainty in the photometric redshift systematic parameters. These can reduce the Figure of Merit by up to a factor of 2 to 4 in both 3D weak lensing methods, if no informative prior on the systematic parameters is applied. Shear distortion systematics have a smaller overall effect. Intrinsic alignment effects can reduce the Figure of Merit by up to a further factor of 2. This, however, is a worst case scenario. By including prior information on systematic parameters the Figure of Merit can be recovered to a large extent. We conclude that, as a rule of thumb, given a realistic current understanding of intrinsic alignments and photometric redshifts, then including all three primary systematic effects reduces the Figure of Merit by at most a factor of 2, but that in reality this factor should be much less. [abridged]

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Bayesian Galaxy Shape Measurement for Weak Lensing Surveys -I. Methodology and a Fast Fitting Algorithm

The principles of measuring the shapes of galaxies by a model-fitting approach are discussed in the context of shape-measurement for surveys of weak gravitational lensing. It is argued that such an approach should be optimal, allowing measurement with maximal signal-to-noise, coupled with estimation of measurement errors. The distinction between likelihood-based and Bayesian methods is discussed. Systematic biases in the Bayesian method may be evaluated as part of the fitting process, and overall such an approach should yield unbiased shear estimation without requiring external calibration from simulations. The principal disadvantage of model-fitting for large surveys is the computational time required, but here an algorithm is presented that enables large surveys to be analysed in feasible computation times. The method and algorithm is tested on simulated galaxies from the Shear TEsting Program (STEP).

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On model selection forecasting, Dark Energy and modified gravity

The Fisher matrix approach (Fisher 1935) allows one to calculate in advance how well a given experiment will be able to estimate model parameters, and has been an invaluable tool in experimental design. In the same spirit, we present here a method to predict how well a given experiment can distinguish between different models, regardless of their parameters. From a Bayesian viewpoint, this involves computation of the Bayesian evidence. In this paper, we generalise the Fisher matrix approach from the context of parameter fitting to that of model testing, and show how the expected evidence can be computed under the same simplifying assumption of a gaussian likelihood as the Fisher matrix approach for parameter estimation. With this `Laplace approximation' all that is needed to compute the expected evidence is the Fisher matrix itself. We illustrate the method with a study of how well upcoming and planned experiments should perform at distinguishing between Dark Energy models and modified gravity theories. In particular we consider the combination of 3D weak lensing, for which planned and proposed wide-field multi-band imaging surveys will provide suitable data, and probes of the expansion history of the Universe, such as proposed supernova and baryonic acoustic oscillations surveys. We find that proposed large-scale weak lensing surveys from space should be able readily to distinguish General Relativity from modified gravity models.

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