arXiv subjects

A. H. Welsh

Publications and source records attributed to A. H. Welsh.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Gradient Boosted Mixed Models: Flexible Estimation of Mean and Variance Components for Clustered Data

We introduce a novel way to combine gradient boosting with mixed effects models, whereby the mean and variance components are learned jointly as functions of covariates via likelihood-based gradients. Gradient Boosted Mixed Models (GBMixed) estimates a nonparametric fixed effects function characterizing the overall mean of the response, while also allowing the random effects covariance matrix along with the residual variance to depend on covariates in a flexible manner. We demonstrate how GBMixed facilitates covariate-dependent random effect predictions, and subsequently point predictions and prediction intervals for individual treatment effects, that can adapt between population-level and cluster-level information. Experiments and applications to two real-world datasets show that GBMixed can accurately recover complex nonlinear fixed effect functions and covariate-dependent covariances in a linear mixed model, while also improving point and probabilistic predictive performance compared with several existing approaches such as parametric linear mixed models, Natural Gradient Boosting, and Gaussian Process Boosting. In simulations where the variance components are designed to vary as a function of covariates, GBMixed reduces the mean squared error in recovering the random effects variance function by a factor of eight relative to linear mixed models and Gaussian Process Boosting.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2026

A Proportional Random Effect Block Bootstrap for General Clustered Data

Clustered data arise naturally in many scientific and applied research settings where units are grouped within clusters. Such data are commonly analyzed using linear mixed models to account for within-cluster correlations. This article proposes a proportional random effect block bootstrap applicable to general linear mixed model settings with imbalanced cluster sizes, both random intercepts and random slopes, and autocorrelation within clusters, while allowing for non-normal random effect and error distributions. It generalizes the original random effect block bootstrap, which was developed for more restrictive settings with balanced cluster sizes, random intercepts only, and constant within-cluster correlation. The proposed bootstrap is shown to be Fisher consistent under these more general settings. Simulations demonstrate strong finite sample inferential performance relative to the original random effect block bootstrap and several existing bootstrap methods for clustered data across a variety of scenarios. Application to the Mayo Clinic primary biliary cirrhosis dataset, which contains cluster sizes ranging from 1 to 16 and exhibits evidence of within-cluster autocorrelation and non-normality, further illustrates improved bootstrap confidence intervals using the proposed method.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2026

Bias-Adjusted Attribution Estimation for Rainfall Enhancement Trials

Model-based analyses of rainfall enhancement trial data typically involve modelling log-transformed rainfall using linear mixed models to assess the effectiveness of enhancement methods under real-world conditions. This approach improves on traditional average-based analyses by allowing explicit control for the effects of meteorological and topographical covariates that may affect precipitation amounts. However, a key issue with such analyses is the bias that arises when back-transforming the log-rainfall to the original scale for estimating attribution, defined as the additional raw-scale rainfall attributable to the enhancement method. To address this issue, we propose a new attribution estimator that incorporates theoretically justified, observation-specific bias-adjustment terms. The proposed estimator improves upon existing estimators that rely on arbitrary adjustments, and satisfies a coherence property that ensures zero estimated attribution for observations without enhancement intervention. A proportional random effect block bootstrap is further used to conduct inference on the attribution quantities. Applying both the proposed estimator and an existing estimator to the Oman rainfall enhancement trial from 2013 to 2018, we find statistically significant positive effect of the ground-based ionization technology on downwind rainfall at the 5% significance level, with our proposed estimator indicating a smaller effect than the existing method. A simulation study further support the findings based on the proposed estimator, demonstrating its superior estimation accuracy and improved inferential performance of the associated bootstrap confidence intervals.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2026

A Single Index Approach to Integrated Species Distribution Modeling for Fisheries Abundance Data

In fisheries ecology, species abundance data are often collected by multiple surveys, each with unique characteristics. This article is motivated by a dataset of Atlantic sea scallop abundance records along the northeast coast of the United States, collected from two bottom trawl surveys which cover a larger spatial domain but have low catch efficiency, and a dredge survey which is more efficient but more bounded in domain. Over the past decade, integrated species distribution models (ISDMs) that include common environmental effects along with correlated survey-specific spatial fields have been used to incorporate information from multiple surveys. While flexible, ISDMs can be susceptible to overfitting, which can complicate interpretability of the shared environmental effects, and potentially lead to poor predictive performance. To overcome these drawbacks, we introduce a novel single index ISDM, built from a single index (with spatial random effects) that represents a latent measure of the true species distribution, and survey-specific catch efficiency functions which map the single index to the survey-specific expected catch. In this article, these functions are constructed via logistic functions or semiparametric spline-based functions. Simulations and application to the motivating sea scallop abundance data demonstrate that the proposed single index ISDM offers more meaningful interpretations of the environmental effects and survey catch efficiency differences, while achieving similar to or better predictive performance than existing ISDMs.

stat.AP↗

arXiv2026

On the inverse of covariance matrices for unbalanced crossed designs

This paper addresses a long-standing open problem in the analysis of linear mixed models with crossed random effects under unbalanced designs: how to find an analytic expression for the inverse of $\mathbf{V}$, the covariance matrix of the observed response. The inverse matrix $\mathbf{V}^{-1}$ is required for likelihood-based estimation and inference. However, for unbalanced crossed designs, $\mathbf{V}$ is dense and the lack of a closed-form representation for $\mathbf{V}^{-1}$, until now, has made using likelihood-based methods computationally challenging and difficult to analyse mathematically. We use the Khatri--Rao product to represent $\mathbf{V}$ and then to construct a modified covariance matrix whose inverse admits an exact spectral decomposition. Building on this construction, we obtain an elegant and simple approximation to $\mathbf{V}^{-1}$ for asymptotic unbalanced designs. For non-asymptotic settings, we derive an accurate and interpretable approximation under mildly unbalanced data and establish an exact inverse representation as a low-rank correction to this approximation, applicable to arbitrary degrees of unbalance. Simulation studies demonstrate the accuracy, stability, and computational tractability of the proposed framework.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2025

High-dimensional sliced inverse regression with endogeneity

Sliced inverse regression (SIR) is a popular sufficient dimension reduction method that identifies a few linear transformations of the covariates without losing regression information with the response. In high-dimensional settings, SIR can be combined with sparsity penalties to achieve sufficient dimension reduction and variable selection simultaneously. Nevertheless, both classical and sparse estimators assume the covariates are exogenous. However, endogeneity can arise in a variety of situations, such as when variables are omitted or are measured with error. In this article, we show such endogeneity invalidates SIR estimators, leading to inconsistent estimation of the true central subspace. To address this challenge, we propose a two-stage Lasso SIR estimator, which first constructs a sparse high-dimensional instrumental variables model to obtain fitted values of the covariates spanned by the instruments, and then applies SIR augmented with a Lasso penalty on these fitted values. We establish theoretical bounds for the estimation and selection consistency of the true central subspace for the proposed estimators, allowing the number of covariates and instruments to grow exponentially with the sample size. Simulation studies and applications to two real-world datasets in nutrition and genetics illustrate the superior empirical performance of the two-stage Lasso SIR estimator compared with existing methods that disregard endogeneity and/or nonlinearity in the outcome model.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2025

On Robust Aggregation for Distributed Data

When data are stored across multiple locations, directly pooling all the data together for statistical analysis may be impossible due to communication costs and privacy concerns. Distributed computing systems allow the analysis of such data, by getting local servers to separately process their own statistical analyses and using a central processor to aggregate the local statistical results. Naive aggregation of local statistics using simple or weighted averages, is vulnerable to contamination within a distributed computing system. This paper develops and investigates a Huber-type aggregation method for locally computed M-estimators to handle contamination in the local estimates. Our implementation of this aggregation method requires estimating the asymptotic variance-covariance matrix of the M-estimator, which we accomplish using a robust spatial median approach. Theoretically, the Huber-type aggregation achieves the same convergence rate as if all the data were pooled. We establish its asymptotic normality for making inferences, including justifying a two-step approach for detecting contamination in the distributed computing system. Extensive simulation studies are conducted to validate the theoretical results and the usefulness of our proposed approach is demonstrated on U.S. airline data.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2025

Asymptotics for EBLUPs within crossed mixed effect models

In this article, we derive the joint asymptotic distribution of empirical best linear unbiased predictors (EBLUPs) for individual and cell-level random effects in a crossed mixed effect model. Under mild conditions (which include moment conditions instead of normality for the random effects and model errors), we demonstrate that as the sizes of rows, columns, and, when we include interactions, cells simultaneously increase to infinity, the distribution of the differences between the EBLUPs and the random effects satisfy central limit theorems. These central limit theorems mean the EBLUPs asymptotically follow the convolution of the true random effect distribution and a normal distribution. Moreover, our results enable simple asymptotic approximations and estimators for the mean squared error (MSE) of the EBLUPs, which in turn facilitates the construction of asymptotic prediction intervals for the unobserved random effects. We show in simulations that our simple estimator of the MSE of the EBLUPs works very well in finite samples. Finally, we illustrate the use of the asymptotic prediction intervals with an analysis of movie rating data.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2024

Random Effects Misspecification and its Consequences for Prediction in Generalized Linear Mixed Models

When fitting generalized linear mixed models (GLMMs), one important decision to make relates to the choice of the random effects distribution. As the random effects are unobserved, misspecification of this distribution is a real possibility. In this article, we investigate the consequences of random effects misspecification for point prediction and prediction inference in GLMMs, a topic on which there is considerably less research compared to consequences for parameter estimation and inference. We use theory, simulation, and a real application to explore the effect of using the common normality assumption for the random effects distribution when the correct specification is a mixture of normal distributions, focusing on the impacts on point prediction, mean squared prediction errors (MSEPs), and prediction intervals. We found that the optimal shrinkage is different under the two random effect distributions, so is impacted by misspecification. The unconditional MSEPs for the random effects are almost always larger under the misspecified normal random effects distribution, especially when cluster sizes are small. Results for the MSEPs conditional on the random effects are more complicated, but they remain generally larger under the misspecified distribution when the true random effect is close to the mean of one of the component distributions in the true mixture distribution. Results for prediction intervals indicate that overall coverage probability is not greatly impacted by misspecification.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2024

OU-CoViT: Copula-Enhanced Bi-Channel Multi-Task Vision Transformers with Dual Adaptation for OU-UWF Images

Myopia screening using cutting-edge ultra-widefield (UWF) fundus imaging and joint modeling of multiple discrete and continuous clinical scores presents a promising new paradigm for multi-task problems in Ophthalmology. The bi-channel framework that arises from the Ophthalmic phenomenon of ``interocular asymmetries'' of both eyes (OU) calls for new employment on the SOTA transformer-based models. However, the application of copula models for multiple mixed discrete-continuous labels on deep learning (DL) is challenging. Moreover, the application of advanced large transformer-based models to small medical datasets is challenging due to overfitting and computational resource constraints. To resolve these challenges, we propose OU-CoViT: a novel Copula-Enhanced Bi-Channel Multi-Task Vision Transformers with Dual Adaptation for OU-UWF images, which can i) incorporate conditional correlation information across multiple discrete and continuous labels within a deep learning framework (by deriving the closed form of a novel Copula Loss); ii) take OU inputs subject to both high correlation and interocular asymmetries using a bi-channel model with dual adaptation; and iii) enable the adaptation of large vision transformer (ViT) models to small medical datasets. Solid experiments demonstrate that OU-CoViT significantly improves prediction performance compared to single-channel baseline models with empirical loss. Furthermore, the novel architecture of OU-CoViT allows generalizability and extensions of our dual adaptation and Copula Loss to various ViT variants and large DL models on small medical datasets. Our approach opens up new possibilities for joint modeling of heterogeneous multi-channel input and mixed discrete-continuous clinical scores in medical practices and has the potential to advance AI-assisted clinical decision-making in various medical domains beyond Ophthalmology.

cs.CV↗

arXiv2024

CeCNN: Copula-enhanced convolutional neural networks in joint prediction of refraction error and axial length based on ultra-widefield fundus images

The ultra-widefield (UWF) fundus image is an attractive 3D biomarker in AI-aided myopia screening because it provides much richer myopia-related information. Though axial length (AL) has been acknowledged to be highly related to the two key targets of myopia screening, Spherical Equivalence (SE) measurement and high myopia diagnosis, its prediction based on the UWF fundus image is rarely considered. To save the high expense and time costs of measuring SE and AL, we propose the Copula-enhanced Convolutional Neural Network (CeCNN), a one-stop UWF-based ophthalmic AI framework to jointly predict SE, AL, and myopia status. The CeCNN formulates a multiresponse regression that relates multiple dependent discrete-continuous responses and the image covariate, where the nonlinearity of the association is modeled by a backbone CNN. To thoroughly describe the dependence structure among the responses, we model and incorporate the conditional dependence among responses in a CNN through a new copula-likelihood loss. We provide statistical interpretations of the conditional dependence among responses, and reveal that such dependence is beyond the dependence explained by the image covariate. We heuristically justify that the proposed loss can enhance the estimation efficiency of the CNN weights. We apply the CeCNN to the UWF dataset collected by us and demonstrate that the CeCNN sharply enhances the predictive capability of various backbone CNNs. Our study evidences the ophthalmology view that besides SE, AL is also an important measure to myopia.

cs.CV↗

arXiv2024

On the effect of noise on fitting linear regression models

In this study, we explore the effects of including noise predictors and noise observations when fitting linear regression models. We present empirical and theoretical results that show that double descent occurs in both cases, albeit with contradictory implications: the implication for noise predictors is that complex models are often better than simple ones, while the implication for noise observations is that simple models are often better than complex ones. We resolve this contradiction by showing that it is not the model complexity but rather the implicit shrinkage by the inclusion of noise in the model that drives the double descent. Specifically, we show how noise predictors or observations shrink the estimators of the regression coefficients and make the test error asymptote, and then how the asymptotes of the test error and the ``condition number anomaly'' ensure that double descent occurs. We also show that including noise observations in the model makes the (usually unbiased) ordinary least squares estimator biased and indicates that the ridge regression estimator may need a negative ridge parameter to avoid over-shrinkage.

math.ST↗

arXiv2024

OUCopula: Bi-Channel Multi-Label Copula-Enhanced Adapter-Based CNN for Myopia Screening Based on OU-UWF Images

Myopia screening using cutting-edge ultra-widefield (UWF) fundus imaging is potentially significant for ophthalmic outcomes. Current multidisciplinary research between ophthalmology and deep learning (DL) concentrates primarily on disease classification and diagnosis using single-eye images, largely ignoring joint modeling and prediction for Oculus Uterque (OU, both eyes). Inspired by the complex relationships between OU and the high correlation between the (continuous) outcome labels (Spherical Equivalent and Axial Length), we propose a framework of copula-enhanced adapter convolutional neural network (CNN) learning with OU UWF fundus images (OUCopula) for joint prediction of multiple clinical scores. We design a novel bi-channel multi-label CNN that can (1) take bi-channel image inputs subject to both high correlation and heterogeneity (by sharing the same backbone network and employing adapters to parameterize the channel-wise discrepancy), and (2) incorporate correlation information between continuous output labels (using a copula). Solid experiments show that OUCopula achieves satisfactory performance in myopia score prediction compared to backbone models. Moreover, OUCopula can far exceed the performance of models constructed for single-eye inputs. Importantly, our study also hints at the potential extension of the bi-channel model to a multi-channel paradigm and the generalizability of OUCopula across various backbone CNNs.

eess.IV↗

arXiv2024

Increasing dimension asymptotics for two-way crossed mixed effect models

This paper presents asymptotic results for the maximum likelihood and restricted maximum likelihood (REML) estimators within a two-way crossed mixed effect model as the sizes of the rows, columns, and cells tend to infinity. Under very mild conditions which do not require the assumption of normality, the estimators are proven to be asymptotically normal, possessing a structured covariance matrix. The growth rate for the number of rows, columns, and cells is unrestricted, whether considered pairwise or collectively.

math.ST↗

arXiv2024

Modeling and Learning on High-Dimensional Matrix-Variate Sequences

We propose a new matrix factor model, named RaDFaM, which is strictly derived based on the general rank decomposition and assumes a structure of a high-dimensional vector factor model for each basis vector. RaDFaM contributes a novel class of low-rank latent structure that makes tradeoff between signal intensity and dimension reduction from the perspective of tensor subspace. Based on the intrinsic separable covariance structure of RaDFaM, for a collection of matrix-valued observations, we derive a new class of PCA variants for estimating loading matrices, and sequentially the latent factor matrices. The peak signal-to-noise ratio of RaDFaM is proved to be superior in the category of PCA-type estimations. We also establish the asymptotic theory including the consistency, convergence rates, and asymptotic distributions for components in the signal part. Numerically, we demonstrate the performance of RaDFaM in applications such as matrix reconstruction, supervised learning, and clustering, on uncorrelated and correlated data, respectively.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2023

Likelihood-based surrogate dimension reduction

We consider the problem of surrogate sufficient dimension reduction, that is, estimating the central subspace of a regression model, when the covariates are contaminated by measurement error. When no measurement error is present, a likelihood-based dimension reduction method that relies on maximizing the likelihood of a Gaussian inverse regression model on the Grassmann manifold is well-known to have superior performance to traditional inverse moment methods. We propose two likelihood-based estimators for the central subspace in measurement error settings, which make different adjustments to the observed surrogates. Both estimators are computed based on maximizing objective functions on the Grassmann manifold and are shown to consistently recover the true central subspace. When the central subspace is assumed to depend on only a few covariates, we further propose to augment the likelihood function with a penalty term that induces sparsity on the Grassmann manifold to obtain sparse estimators. The resulting objective function has a closed-form Riemann gradient which facilitates efficient computation of the penalized estimator. We leverage the state-of-the-art trust region algorithm on the Grassmann manifold to compute the proposed estimators efficiently. Simulation studies and a data application demonstrate the proposed likelihood-based estimators perform better than inverse moment-based estimators in terms of both estimation and variable selection accuracy.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2023

Cokrig-and-Regress for Spatially Misaligned Environmental Data

Spatially misaligned data, where the response and covariates are observed at different spatial locations, commonly arise in many environmental studies. Much of the statistical literature on handling spatially misaligned data has been devoted to the case of a single covariate and a linear relationship between the response and this covariate. Motivated by spatially misaligned data collected on air pollution and weather in China, we propose a cokrig-and-regress (CNR) method to estimate spatial regression models involving multiple covariates and potentially non-linear associations. The CNR estimator is constructed by replacing the unobserved covariates (at the response locations) by their cokriging predictor derived from the observed but misaligned covariates under a multivariate Gaussian assumption, where a generalized Kronecker product covariance is used to account for spatial correlations within and between covariates. A parametric bootstrap approach is employed to bias-correct the CNR estimates of the spatial covariance parameters and for uncertainty quantification. Simulation studies demonstrate that CNR outperforms several existing methods for handling spatially misaligned data, such as nearest-neighbor interpolation. Applying CNR to the spatially misaligned air pollution and weather data in China reveals a number of non-linear relationships between PM$_{2.5}$ concentration and several meteorological covariates.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2022

Small Area Estimation using EBLUPs under the Nested Error Regression Model

Estimating characteristics of domains (referred to as small areas) within a population from sample surveys of the population is an important problem in survey statistics. In this paper, we consider model-based small area estimation under the nested error regression model. We discuss the construction of mixed model estimators (empirical best linear unbiased predictors, EBLUPs) of small area means and the conditional linear predictors of small area means. Under the asymptotic framework of increasing numbers of small areas and increasing numbers of units in each area, we establish asymptotic linearity results and central limit theorems for these estimators which allow us to establish asymptotic equivalences between estimators, approximate their sampling distributions, obtain simple expressions for and construct simple estimators of their asymptotic mean squared errors, and justify asymptotic prediction intervals. We present model-based simulations that show that in quite small, finite samples, our mean squared error estimator performs as well or better than the widely-used \cite{prasad1990estimation} estimator and is much simpler, so is easier to interpret. We also carry out a design-based simulation using real data on consumer expenditure on fresh milk products to explore the design-based properties of the mixed model estimators. We explain and interpret some surprising simulation results through analysis of the population and further design-based simulations. The simulations highlight important differences between the model- and design-based properties of mixed model estimators in small area estimation.

stat.ME↗